My first bet: NFL Week 10 early picks

Week 10 of the NFL season features 14 games, starting with an AFC North matchup on Thursday night. Current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens welcome Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals to M&T Bank Stadium for a primetime showdown.

Sunday’s slate begins with a morning game from Germany, pitting two struggling teams, the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, at the Allianz Arena in Munich. To close out the day, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions visit CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans on Sunday night. The Lions enter Sunday’s prime-time game on a six-game winning streak and are 4-0 on the road this season. Week 10 ends with two teams seemingly going in opposite directions. The Los Angeles Rams, winners of three straight games, face the Miami Dolphins, who are in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

Our team takes an early look at the Week 10 odds to find value before the odds shift later in the week.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last week: Cleveland Browns-Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 40.5 points. Line closed at 41.5. The Chargers won 27-10.

Let’s capture this before it reaches the crucial number 7. San Francisco is coming off a bye week, while Tampa Bay will be on a six-day break after Monday night’s game at Kansas City, so the spot screams “49ers.” Additionally, the Niners are getting healthy again and Christian McCaffrey could make his season debut in this game. Additionally, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is 0-5 ATS in his career when facing an opponent that is coming off a bye week. There’s a good reason why this line has already moved from -5.5 to -6.5, and it won’t be the least bit surprising if it hits -7 before kickoff.

Ben Solak’s first bet: San Francisco 49ers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47.5 (-115)

The 49ers are coming off their bye and are hoping to get McCaffrey back on the roster – their offense desperately needs him and the Buccaneers’ defense is the perfect place for a soft landing for his debut. Meanwhile, the Bucs are always good for some high pass percentages and garbage timing, and the 49ers defense remains an overrated unit in betting circles. If you can contain their pass rush – which the Bucs’ outstanding tackling duo of Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke can do – you can move the ball on them, both on the ground and through the air. Expect points here.

Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Washington Commanders-Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44.5 (-110)

Last week: Rams win the NFC West (+500). Rams currently (+375) win the NFC West.

We love betting on the Steelers, especially away from home. This line is probably a bit exaggerated due to Jayden Daniels. The all-time favorite for Rookie of the Year is definitely dynamic and capable of putting up points, but I don’t think he’s seen a defense anywhere near the caliber of this Pittsburgh unit yet. On the other hand, Russell Wilson has been a revelation at QB for Mike Tomlin’s offense, but I feel like some regression is coming. Dan Quinn’s defense has struggled in recent weeks. I would play this down to 42.5.

Anita Marks’ first bet: Houston Texans (+4) vs. Detroit Lions

Last week: Patriots-Titans under 37.5 points. Line closed at 37.5. The Titans won 20-17.

The Lions have to travel on the road for the second week in a row. They travel to Houston to face a Texas team that has a mini-bye considering Houston played on Thursday night. The extension allows the Texans to get healthier. Will Anderson Jr. is dealing with an ankle sprain and the team is hoping to get Nico Collins back on the roster. CJ Stroud plays better at home than away and won’t face as much pressure against the Aidan Hutchinson-less Lions pass rush as he did against the Jets’ front seven.

Andre Snellings’ first bet: Denver Broncos (+9) over Kansas City Chiefs

Last week: Commanders -3 vs Giants (-120). Line closed at Commanders -3.5. The Commanders won 27-22.

I fully support favoring the Chiefs in this game, but I think that line is artificially inflated by the Chiefs’ undefeatedness and the Broncos’ defeat by the Ravens by 31 points on Sunday. These two facts obscure the fact that the Chiefs have rarely won overwhelmingly this season and the Broncos are rarely overpowered. Of the Chiefs’ first seven wins, only two were by more than seven points: a 13-point victory over a New Orleans Saints team in the midst of a seven-game losing streak and a 10-point victory over the San Francisco 49ers team was plagued by an injury.

The Chiefs’ other five wins came by an average of 5.4 PPG. Aside from the Ravens’ loss, the Broncos have not lost another game by more than seven points this season, and their average lead over the Ravens was +6.6 points. The Broncos are built on a strong defense that keeps them in the game, and unlike the Ravens’ high-powered offense (first in the NFL with 445.9 yards/game, second with 31.4 PPG), this year’s Chiefs play more on offense Ball control (11th NFL with 348.0 yards/game, 11th with 24.7 PPG). Add in the division rivalry, which often makes games more competitive than expected, and 9 points is just too big of a margin for my liking. I’ll take the Broncos and the points.

Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Indiana Hoosiers to win the Big Ten Championship (+1100)

Last week: Chicago Bears UNDER 8.5 wins. The Bears lost to the Cardinals and were 4-4 on the season.

This is a tempting risky bet with potentially high rewards. The Hoosiers’ offense is explosive (1st in points per game) while their defense has been stingy (10th in touchdowns allowed). With a crucial matchup against Ohio State remaining, a win there would likely secure Indiana’s spot in the title game. If they can beat the Buckeyes, your +1100 ticket would essentially become a coin flip against Oregon in the championship and provide tremendous value. Given the balanced attack, strong defense and the fact that Indiana has already exceeded expectations, they have a legitimate chance to pull off the upset and win the Big Ten title, making this a potentially lucrative bet for the risk-tolerant bettor makes.