NASA will decide on Saturday whether astronauts will fly home on Boeing's Starliner – or use SpaceX's Dragon instead

On Saturday, NASA officials will announce their final decision on whether NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams will return to Earth on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft or head home on SpaceX instead, a decision that could have enormous implications for the rapidly evolving space industry.

Here’s the backstory. Boeing launched its first manned Starliner mission on June 5 for an eight-day stay on the International Space Station (ISS). The mission is intended to be the final, critical hurdle before the capsule is certified for regular astronaut-transport flights to and from the ISS.

But in the final phase of its approach to the station, the Starliner spacecraft encountered a series of technical problems – several engines failed and helium leaks occurred in the propulsion system.

After about an hour’s delay, engineers managed to get four of the five faulty engines running again (Starliner has 28 engines). But NASA and Boeing have been working since then to determine the cause. This includes analyzing data from the engines on board Starliner and conducting ground tests of replica engines at the White Sands Test Facility in New Mexico to study performance under conditions similar to those the spacecraft would experience during liftoff from the station.

“Our biggest concern is a successful deorbit launch – we need to make sure the (propulsion) system performs as required throughout the deorbit launch,” NASA Deputy Administrator Ken Bowersox said at a press conference earlier this month.

NASA has admitted that there is disagreement among those responsible within the organization about how to proceed. Boeing, for its part, has made public statements about the safety of the Starliner and the thoroughness of the test campaign.

Saturday’s decision will end the debate. If the agency determines Starliner isn’t safe enough to fly home, it would undock empty from the station and Williams and Wilmore would return aboard a SpaceX Dragon capsule. (Starliner could still safely return to the surface autonomously in that scenario, but the optics aren’t great.)

NASA has already postponed the launch of the SpaceX Crew-9 mission to the ISS by a month to September 24. Williams and Wilmore would use this vehicle to return to Earth at the end of its stay – in February 2025.

If NASA decides that Starliner should return empty, it could remove two astronauts from the Crew-9 list to make room for Williams and Wilmore to return. Another option would be for one Starliner astronaut to return with Crew-8 and another with Crew-9. This would be the first time a SpaceX Dragon has carried five crew members at once.

Unlike Starliner, Dragon has proven its credibility with NASA. The spacecraft has become critical to the space agency as it is the only American-made mode of transportation for astronauts (among other things, world politics makes using the Russian Soyuz capsule and facilities impossible). SpaceX’s Dragon completed its crewed certification mission back in 2020 and has since completed eight crewed missions for NASA and a handful of other private crewed space missions. Starliner is currently the only credible competition, and if it were taken off the market, Dragon would be even more in demand.

NASA leadership, including its chief administrator Bill Nelson, will conduct what is known as an “agency-level review of the data,” also known as a flight readiness review, on Saturday and hold a press conference shortly thereafter.

The stakes are high for NASA and Boeing. Boeing has poured over $1.5 billion into its Starliner program, and it’s unclear whether the aerospace giant would continue development should that test mission fail. For its part, NASA has paid Boeing $4.2 billion over the years to develop the spacecraft in the hopes of having two commercial astronaut transportation providers online. If its decision on Saturday results in one of those being shut down, it could lead to some awkward budget negotiations.

Either way, Saturday’s decision will likely be seen as a turning point for privately developed spaceflight and public-private partnerships. Tune in at 10 a.m. Pacific Time or follow our coverage Saturday.

NASA will decide on Saturday whether astronauts will fly home on Boeing’s Starliner – or use SpaceX’s Dragon instead

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