New apparent assassination attempt against Trump is another dark moment with unpredictable political consequences

CNN
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There is no political playbook for how to deal with another apparent assassination attempt on a major party presidential candidate within weeks of an election.

And that’s where the rival campaigns find themselves now, after what appears to be a second attempt to take down Republican nominee Donald Trump, the latest twist in a political season that has defied precedent and exposed the nation’s deep polarization.

Twice in two months, America has narrowly avoided the tragedy of an assassination attempt on a major political figure in the middle of an election campaign. And it is also a lesson in the toxic forces that such a scandal could unleash in a country plagued by deep partisan divides.

That such incidents are occurring at all speaks to the underlying violence that constantly shadows American politics, exacerbated by the easy availability of firearms. With both candidates now speaking to outdoor crowds from behind bulletproof walls, there will now be fresh fears that a tumultuous period before Election Day could lead the country even further down a dark path.

After decades without an attempted assassination of a high-ranking law enforcement official, this year has revived a disturbing reality: running for the highest office potentially puts your life on the line.

Quick reactions from Trump’s friends and enemies

Vice President Kamala Harris, her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and President Joe Biden were all quick to express relief that a person suspected of attempting to attack Trump at one of his Florida golf courses was discovered before he could throw a shot and that the former president was safe. Harris said she had been informed of the incident and wrote on social media, “I’m glad he’s safe. Violence has no place in America.”

As stark as it may be to think about the political ramifications immediately after an apparent assassination, in America everything becomes politicized within minutes – especially 50 days before a close election.

Trump – who stood up and shouted “fight, fight, fight” within seconds of surviving his first, much narrower assassination attempt on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania – immediately posted a fundraising email on Sunday afternoon that read: “I’m fine!”

“Nothing will stop me. I will NEVER CAPITULATE!” Trump wrote in the email, which linked to a website where supporters could donate.

And one of the ex-president’s key allies, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, released a statement reiterating the idea that Trump was spared by divine providence, a recurring theme at the Republican National Convention. The House Republican leader said that after what happened, the country now had an obligation to elect Trump. “Thank God President Trump continues to watch over us. As Americans, we must unite behind him in November to protect our republic and bring peace back to the world,” she said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, who visited the former president at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Sunday, also said Trump had benefited from divine intervention and alluded to the narrative that Trump was unbeatable. “No leader in American history has endured more attacks and remained so strong and resilient. He is unstoppable.”

This sense that Trump was under God’s protection fueled a sense of destiny among his supporters at the Milwaukee convention that he was destined to win. But those assumptions were tempered when Biden put his re-election bid on hold, giving Harris the opportunity to step in and change the campaign.

The man arrested in connection with the alleged assassination attempt was spotted by the Secret Service several holes ahead of the former president at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Stefanik asked how “an assassin could get so close to President Trump again.” She wrote, “There continue to be no answers about the gruesome assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, and we await a clear explanation for what happened today in Florida.” The New York Republican’s questioning of the Secret Service is likely to herald a debate in the coming days about the level of protection afforded the former president – especially in light of the events in Butler.

Trump has already suggested, without evidence, that the Biden administration and Harris were involved in the Pennsylvania assassination, claiming they used the Justice Department as a weapon against him. But all of Trump’s criminal issues have been tried through regular court processes, and there is no evidence that the White House is in any way involved.

The second apparent assassination attempt comes against the backdrop of a tumultuous election campaign that defies convention and prediction. For the first time since 1968, an incumbent president has abandoned his re-election campaign just months before the election, reluctantly making way for his vice president, who has a chance to become the first black woman and South Asian commander in chief. The Republican nominee is a convicted felon who faces multiple criminal charges for his unprecedented attempt to cling to power after losing the last election. If he returns to the White House, Trump would be only the second president to lose re-election but win a second term without being re-elected.

The ex-president’s actions will be closely watched in the coming days. After the first assassination attempt, the former president called on the country to stick together. But his promise of unity did not last much longer than the first third of his speech at the Republican National Convention, which degenerated into the typical divisive politics on which he had built his political career.

Trump has also repeatedly ignored advice from leading Republicans and his campaign team to limit himself to a sharp, incisive argument against Harris. They want him to focus on her role in the Biden administration’s economic policies at a time when many voters are still struggling with high prices despite a falling inflation rate. So even if his advisers advise him to renew his theme of national unity, there is no guarantee that Trump will listen or consider it in his political interest.

Another apparent attempt on his life is likely to hit the former president personally. In the days after he narrowly escaped death or serious injury in Pennsylvania when a bullet grazed his ear, Trump seemed contrite. But since then he has been the same wild man again and his rhetoric has become even more extreme. He recently warned his political opponents that he will use the law against them and imprison them if he believes the election is fraudulent, and he has reiterated his baseless claims that the last election was stolen.

In the immediate aftermath of Sunday’s incident, most Trump opponents focused on maintaining calm in this volatile moment. In a democracy, there is no justification for using violence to silence a politician. At the same time, however, the coming days will be filled with debate over the extent to which the former president – a uniquely inflammatory figure – helped fuel the nation’s divisions.

Earlier this weekend, the former president and his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, escalated political tensions. Both Republicans denounced baseless allegations that Haitian refugees in Springfield, Ohio, stole and ate pets. Trump’s opponents have warned that his ongoing racist demagoguery is putting lives at risk.

In a controversial interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday, Vance insisted that the claims about the Haitian migrants – who are in the United States legally – were borne out by complaints from some of his constituents. And far from backing down from the story – despite several local officials saying there was no truth to the rumor – Vance angrily denounced claims that recent bomb threats against the city had anything to do with him and Trump escalating the claims. He told Dana Bash, “This city has suffered terribly from the problem – from the policies of Kamala Harris.”

But Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, when asked by ABC on Sunday whether he had seen any evidence to support the pet-eating rumors, said: “No. Absolutely not.” The Ohio governor added that the Haitian migrants Trump threatened to deport to Venezuela on Friday were in the country legally.

Under normal circumstances, an apparent assassination attempt against a presidential candidate could spark a wave of sympathy that could translate into a political surge. But Trump’s latest near-defeat comes at a time when the race with Harris is neck and neck. With both candidates vying for perhaps several hundred thousand voters in swing states, it’s unclear how much room remains for a change in perceptions of Trump, who has been a polarizing figure since launching his first national campaign in 2015.

The former president will almost certainly use recent events to bolster his baseless claim that he is the victim of persecution designed to keep him out of power, but it is too early to say whether the second assassination attempt will have greater political repercussions than the first.

Ultimately, it is up to voters to navigate this unpredictable and dangerous election campaign.