New presidential election polls released in Pennsylvania, Michigan, NC

Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain in a razor-thin race for winnable swing states that could cement an Electoral College win, new polls released by UMass Lowell/YouGov show.

In the final days of the election, the battleground states of North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire remain closely contested for both candidates as they submit their final ballot proposals to voters before November 5th. Polls, not just in these swing states, but across the country, continue to predict a close race for the White House.

As the exciting race nears its conclusion in five days, Trump and Harris both plan to address supporters on Thursday in Nevada, another key swing state.

Here’s what you should know about the latest surveys:

Trump leads Harris in North Carolina

In a new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released Thursday, Trump leads Harris by two percentage points.

The poll of 650 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 47% to 45% in the final days of the 2024 election. The poll, conducted Oct. 16-23, had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

In a worrisome sign for the vice president, 74% of respondents in the state said they felt the country was on the wrong path, while 57% either somewhat or strongly disapproved of Joe Biden’s job as president.

As in many polls, the majority of respondents (49%) give Trump the edge when asked who they think is best suited to handle the economy. Most respondents also said Trump would be best able to handle the Middle East conflict (48%) and immigration (52%).

However, consistent with other national trends, Harris came in ahead of respondents on abortion (50%).

Harris was also perceived by respondents as more trustworthy (45%) and more law-abiding (46%), while Trump was perceived as more corrupt than his opponent by 48% of respondents.

Harris leads Trump in Michigan

In Michigan, Harris has a slight 4-point lead over Trump, according to the latest UMass poll.

The poll of 600 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 49-45%. The poll, conducted Oct. 16-24, had a margin of error of 4.49 percentage points.

But while Harris retains the lead, 66% of respondents said the country is on the wrong track – a worrying sign for the vice president.

When respondents were asked who would handle the economy best, Trump was slightly more favored than Harris, at 46% and 45%, respectively.

Further findings:

56% somewhat or strongly disapprove of Biden;
46% said Trump was best able to handle the conflicts in the Middle East;
57% favored Harris on abortion;
49% said Harris was more trustworthy, while 52% said Trump was more corrupt.

Harris with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania

The UMass poll showed Harris with a slim 1 percentage point lead over Trump in the key state of Pennsylvania.

The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 16-23 and showed Harris leading Trump 48% to 47%. The lead was well within the survey’s margin of error (3.73 percentage points).

Respondents preferred Trump when it came to which candidate would do a better job of handling the economy (50% to 44%) and handling the Israel-Hamas war (47% to 39%).

Harris is slightly ahead in New Hampshire

According to UMass, Harris’ lead in New Hampshire is slightly higher at seven percentage points.

The poll of 600 likely Harris voters showed Harris leading 50-43%, with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points. The survey was conducted October 16-23.

Unlike other polls, the majority of respondents (47%) slightly approved of Harris’ handling of the economy. However, more respondents still gave Trump the edge when it comes to dealing with the Middle East conflict (44%) and immigration (44%).

The survey also found:

72% of respondents believe the country is going in the wrong direction;
56% somewhat or strongly disapprove of Biden;
57% believe Harris would better address abortion issue;
53% said Harris was more trustworthy and 54% said Trump was more corrupt.

What you should consider when taking surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can assume that the survey results are representative of the entire population.

If a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, which significantly underestimated Trump’s performance.

Eric Lagatta covers breaking and breaking news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]

Trump leads Harris in North Carolina

Harris leads Trump in Michigan

Harris with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania

Harris is slightly ahead in New Hampshire

What you should consider when taking surveys

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