NFL Player Props for Week 3: Decoding the KC Backfield

Here are five of my favorite NFL player bets for Week 3 that are currently available on the board. You can find all of my Week 3 bets in our Bet Tracker where you can find all of my free NFL betsas well as our (also free) BettingLife Newsletter.

If you are a more serious sports speculator, you can also refer to my Weekly Fantasy Rankings And NFL player predictions with a FantasyLife+ subscription.

For prop-specific tools see our Fantasy Life Prop Finder as well as Player Prop Edge Chart.

Odds and predictions as of Thursday, September 19, 8:00 p.m. ET.

Carson Steele Player Prop Week 3: Under 1.5 Receptions

• Odds: +125 (DraftKings)
• My prediction: 1.1

Without RB Isiah Pacheco (Leg, IR), the Chiefs currently have a backfield consisting of rookie Carson Steeleveteran Samaje Perineand bearing body Keaontay Ingram in the active squad with Prodigal Son Kareem Hunt in the practice squad.

I’m tentatively expecting Steele to be the leading running back, especially on early attempts, but Perine had 50 receptions and 455 yards on 56 attempts last year and is an established presence on passing attempts. Ingram probably won’t play a role, but he had 89-671-6 receptions in college. And Hunt has 226-1,890-17 receptions on 285 attempts in his seven-year NFL career.

The Chiefs will likely operate with a committee – and Steele is the least proven pass catcher of all the committee members.

Steele hasn’t played much so far, but he was No. 2 behind Pacheco last week, and in his 18 snaps this year he has zero targets and a 16% route rate (according to our Industry-leading Fantasy Life usage report).

Compare that to Perine, who only has 13 snaps this year…but 13 routes and three targets.

If the Chiefs want to throw the ball, I doubt Steele will be on the field, and if he is, I’m skeptical the ball will actually go his way.

Tre Tucker Player Prop Week 3: Under 1.5 Receptions

• Odds: +140 (BetMGM)
• My prediction: 1.3

The Raiders are -5.5 home favoritesso I expect them to rely on the running game with RBs Zamir White And Alexander Mattisonespecially since the Panthers are so vulnerable in the running game.

In Week 1, the Panthers allowed 172 yards and two TDs from scrimmage to the Saints RBs. Last week, they allowed 201 yards and one TD to the Chargers RBs. Last year, they were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.024, per RBs are unimportant) and Defensive Rush DVOA (5.7%, per FTN)–and now they are without DT Derrick Brown (Knee, IR).

The Raiders will likely have a run-oriented game script and their opponents are well suited to a run-oriented approach.

Add to that the fact that HC Antonio Pierce said after last week’s surprise road win against the Ravens that he wanted the team to start using the running game more. The Raiders will likely try to use the running game to drive their offense at every opportunity in Week 3.

As a result, the Raiders receivers probably won’t have many chances to catch passes … and Tucker (5) is behind the WRs Davante Adams (18) and Jakobi Meyers (8), TE Brock Bowers (17) and even White (6) and Mattison (6) in goals.

As the No. 6 receiver on a team that probably doesn’t throw the ball often, Tucker is in for a disappointing weekend.

Gus Edwards Player Prop Week 3: Over 32.5 Rushing Yards

• Odds: -110 (BetMGM)
• My prediction: 37.5

I think this number is artificially low for two reasons.

First, Edwards looked like a slow worker in two games, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. And maybe he has actually declined precipitously: He is 29 years old, after all. But in his first six years as a pro, he had a 4.9-yard rushing average, and last year his career-low was 4.1. Even if we assume he has slowed down, it’s reasonable to expect him to run for more than 2.9 yards per carry for the rest of the season.

Second, he has a tough opponent, as the Steelers rank 4th in Defensive Rush EPA (-0.294), but that ranking is likely inflated by previous matchups. In Week 1, they faced a Falcons offense coordinated by a first-time playcaller who massively anticipated run plays due to the formation. In Week 2, they faced an offense led by a rookie QB. Bo NixLast year, the Falcons were No. 1 in Defensive Rush EPA (-0.190), a number nowhere near as bad as the Steelers are now. The decline will eventually hit the Steelers run defense.

Edwards has 29 carries this year, including at least 11 in both games. I expect him to be used a similar amount this week, as the Chargers will almost certainly want to stick with the running game and the Steelers’ offense is unlikely to force the Chargers to give up the running game.

As long as Edwards can manage 10 or more carries, his chances of reaching the over are good.

Jordan Mason SGP: Anytime TD and under 106.5 scrimmage yards

• Odds: +252 (FanDuel)
• My prediction: 0.8 TDs, -205.7 TD chances | 101.5 scrimmage yards

When I placed this bet, Mason’s odds of scoring a touchdown at any time were -185 and his odds of staying under 106.5 scrimmage yards were -113.

If you add these odds to our Fantasy Life Parlay Calculatoryou can see that the neutral accumulator bet for these two games is +190.4. So the bookmaker is giving us almost 62 cents extra as potential compensation for the risk we are taking on this inversely correlated accumulator bet.

And let’s face it, that combination is inversely correlated. If we take that combination to the extreme, it becomes clear that it would be nearly impossible for Mason to not score a TD with 1,000 scrimmage yards in Week 3, and it would be extremely unlikely for him to score a TD with just one scrimmage yard.

Whether Mason finds the end zone depends in part on how many yards he manages, so it is appropriate for the bookmaker to increase the payout if this combination is successful.

But how inversely correlated are these two sides? Is the bookmaker adjusting the odds too much?

Going back to the extreme examples of 1,000 yards and one yard for Mason, could he theoretically get 1,000 yards in this game and still not score a touchdown? Yes, as long as he doesn’t have an opportunity at the goal line. Is it possible for Mason to get one yard and score a touchdown? Yes, especially if he does have an opportunity at the goal line.

The deciding factor in whether Mason scores a touchdown is not the yards he gains in the scrimmage, but the number of his opportunities at the goal line.

In his two games as an injury replacement for RB Christian McCaffrey (Achilles, IR), Mason is number 1 in total runs (48) and No. 3 in goal line carries (3). With this effort he scored a TD in both games.

With the 49ers favorites by 7 points and an implied total of 25.25, Mason’s chances of scoring a touchdown are good, and my projection suggests he will be below average in his scrimmage yards.

Put all this together and this inversely correlated single player accumulator bet on the same game becomes extremely intriguing.

Josh Allen Player rate week 3: Over 0.5 interceptions

• Odds: +100 (DraftKings)
• My prediction: 0.73 INTs, -139.2 INT odds

One of my favorite bets last year was Allen throwing an INT, and now I’m going back to it.

Allen hasn’t thrown an INT this year, which I think creates favorable opportunities for us now.

Last year, Allen threw 18 INTs in 19 games (including playoffs). The year before that, he threw 17 INTs in 18 games. And the year before that, he threw 15 in 19.

Allen’s specialty is throwing INTs. He’s not a bad quarterback, but he’s aggressive: He attacks further down the field and isn’t afraid to throw into tight coverage. And that leads to INTs.

Since OC Joe Brady took over play calling in Week 11 last year, the Bills have focused more on running the ball and Allen’s INTs have declined. In 11 games with Brady, Allen had just seven INTs with a pick in just six of them.

And Allen, as a -5 home favorite, may not have to throw much this week.

But at odds of +100, he has an implied probability of 50% to throw an INT (according to our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), and based on everything we’ve seen from Allen over the course of his career — even if we only focus on the elite player he’s been over the last few seasons — I think it’s reasonable to assume that Allen is more likely to have a pick in any given game than not.