NHL odds, picks, best bets on Monday

In the only NHL match on Monday, two of the NHL’s most successful goal scorers, Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov, will share the same ice surface.

Matthews and the Maple Leafs got off to a lethargic offensive start in contrast to their usual exuberant performance. The league’s top scorer over the last eight seasons is second on Toronto’s roster with a total of four points.

The Maple Leafs’ power play appears rusty, with a conversion rate of 12.5 percent through four games, but their strong five-on-five play has carried them to three wins.

According to Moneypuck, the Maple Leafs have the eighth-highest expected goals percentage in the game so far.

I expect Toronto’s stars to perform positively on Monday, as both the newly named captain and Mitch Marner have averaged at least a point per game against the Lightning in their careers.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs odds

On the opposing bench, Kucherov breaks all franchise records with his great start. He is No. 1 overall with seven goals in four games, a feat that makes him the first Lightning player in history to start a season with that many goals on the scoresheet.

Historically, Kucherov makes his money on the power play, so it’s particularly polarizing that only two of his nine points came via the man advantage, indicative of the Lightning’s excellent five-on-five status.

Together with the Maple Leafs, they have a goal difference of five against five from six or more, putting both clubs in the top three on Sunday.

Both Craig Berube and Jon Cooper mirror each other’s structures, using top talent to execute quick transition plays and maintain pressure in the offensive zone.

Betting on the NHL?

These familiar Atlantic Division foes have topped the over mark in eight of 11 regular season meetings over the past three seasons with a goal percentage of 6.5.

Let’s look for the numerous awards these two squads have won to confirm themselves with another barnburner.

THE GAME: Over 6.5 goals (-112, FanDuel)

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Sean Stangedi covers the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He focuses primarily on decisions that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.