No. 12 Michigan Football vs. Minnesota

After a surprising 27-24 win over USC, No. 12 Michigan will look for its third straight win this weekend when it hosts Minnesota at the Big House on Saturday (noon ET/FOX). The Wolverines (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big Ten) are a 10-point favorite over the Golden Gophers (2-2, 0-1).

One of the oldest and most played rivalry games in all of college football, this will be the 106th time the Wolverines and Golden Gophers have met, the last 98 of which have come for The Little Brown Jug. Michigan has dominated the series with a 77-25-3 record against Minnesota, including four straight wins for the Wolverines. The Golden Gophers’ last win in this series came in 2014, a 30-14 decision in Ann Arbor.

Minnesota comes into this game coming off a 31-14 loss to Iowa last weekend. The Golden Gophers also suffered defeat in the only other Power 4 opponent they have faced this season: a 19-17 loss to North Carolina in the season opener. The Gophers’ two wins came against Rhode Island (48-0) and Nevada (27-0). Offensively, it’s been a tough start for head coach PJ Fleck’s team, which ranks 104th in total offense (335 ypg) and 95th in yards per game (5.51).

Michigan’s offense didn’t fare much better, as the Wolverines rank 109th in total offense (327 ypg) and 94th in yards per play (5.53). It won’t be easy for the UM offense to prevail against the Gophers. Minnesota boasts the No. 8 defense in yards allowed per game (223.2), 13th in the country in yards allowed per game (3.99), and 2nd in passing yards allowed per game . However, Michigan’s offensive strength is consistent with the weaker side of Minnesota’s defense. The Wolverines average 204.8 rushing yards per game (31st) and 5.57 yards per carry (T-33), while the Gophers rank 56th in average rush yards allowed (123.8) and 56th in rush yards allowed Yards per carry (3.81) ranked 62nd.

Below, Michigan Wolverines on SI Editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop, and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game Two bold predictions, Game previewsAnd Final result predictions.

1. Michigan is throwing for less than 100 yards again

I’m not sure if this would be considered a “bold” prediction given what we saw last weekend, but I don’t think Michigan will rush for more than 100 yards on Saturday. The biggest deciding factor here is the health of tight end Colston Loveland and whether or not he will be available on Saturday, but it’s clear the Wolverines will hold onto the ball until someone proves they can stop them. Additionally, the Michigan offense ranks last in the Big Ten in passing offense, while the Golden Gophers are currently ranked No. 2 nationally in pass defense (at just 99.5 YPG).

2. The Michigan defense finishes with 4 sacks again

While it wasn’t a perfect performance, the Michigan defense showed signs of dominance last Saturday against USC. Because of Michigan’s relentless attack, Trojans quarterback Miller Moss spent much of the afternoon on his back. The Wolverines finished the afternoon with 4.0 sacks, 7.0 QB hits, 27 QB pressures and a pass rush grade of 91.2. For Michigan to continue to be successful, the Wolverines need a performance like this from their defense every Saturday in conference play.

1. Alex Orji throws for 150 yards

What a clearly Forecast! But let’s be honest, that’s exactly where we are right now. Michigan has thrown over 150 once this season, and that’s because the Wolverines trailed Texas early and had to throw the football. Alex Orji had a 32-yard performance against USC and that needs to improve. Literally, it has to be better than 32 yards. 150 yards isn’t a lot in today’s college football and Sherrone Moore said he’d like to see a more balanced offense, so I can imagine Orji throwing it a few more times on Saturday.

2. Kalel Mullings is aiming to hit 125-plus on the ground

Mullings has scored more than 150 points in consecutive games and he has shown enough to prove that he holds the lead at this point. Although I think Michigan will throw a few more times, Michigan wants to dominate the football and assert its dominance in the trenches. There’s no reason to abandon Mullings on Saturday – especially against a team that allowed Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson to rush for 200 yards and three scores last weekend. I’m looking forward to Mullings breaking up some long runs and having another great day.

1. Michigan exceeds 275 rushing yards for the third straight game

The Wolverines ran for .301 against Arkansas State and .290 against USC, and there’s no doubt they’ll rely heavily on the running game again this weekend. In the loss to Iowa, Minnesota allowed 272 rushing yards despite the Hawkeyes’ limitations at quarterback. That bodes well for Michigan running back Kalel Mullings, who has had an outstanding performance so far this season. It will be another tough afternoon for the Wolverines.

2. Donovan Edwards scores two touchdowns

Although Mullings has earned the right to be Michigan’s lead back, I expect Donovan Edwards to have a big game. I was tempted to predict Edwards would lead the Wolverines in rushing this week, but I think Mullings will get more carries overall and it’s hard to rule against him after how he’s played this season. However, I think Edwards can have success replacing Mullings, and maybe he’ll loosen up a few times when he comes into the game with fresh legs.

The safest bet is that Michigan applies the winning formula it used against USC last weekend to Minnesota this weekend: run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. The tandem of Mullings and Edwards will continue to be productive, and I’m just not sure Minnesota is ready for the entire four quarters. Add to that a stingy defense that is great against the run and can make life very difficult for an opposing QB, and I think the Wolverines win comfortably here.

Result prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 13

After rooting for USC to win last weekend, I’m back with the Wolverines. I don’t think Minnesota is a bad team, but I don’t think the Gophers should be a team that goes to the Big House and upsets the Wolverines. Both Michigan’s running game and defense are playing much better, and look at what Iowa did against Minnesota last weekend. Hawkeye running back Kaleb Johnson ran for over 200 yards and scored three scores against the Gophers. Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards could be in for big games. I don’t think Minnesota’s offense does anything exciting that could confuse Michigan on defense. The only big question going into this game is what the Wolverines’ passing game looks like.

Result prediction: Michigan 24, Minnesota 10

The over-under for this game is a low 35.5 total points, and I still think that’s too high. This game will feature two of the worst offenses in college football, and both defenses will have the advantage. Still, Michigan is the more talented and better team. The Wolverines have a plan to follow after Iowa posted 272 rushing yards against the Gophers last week, and we’ll see a similar game plan for UM. With that in mind, I expect another quiet day from quarterback Alex Orji and the passing game. Field position and turnovers are a key component here.

Result prediction: Michigan 20, Minnesota 10

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