NYT declares that Trump is likely to win the presidency

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump waves at a campaign rally at Van Andel Arena on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Grand Rapids, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

The New York Times’ Election needle projected the former president Donald Trump is “likely” to win a second term in the White House by repeating his 2016 success in breaking the so-called “blue wall.”

The newspaper’s forecast also assumed that Trump would win the national popular vote, something no Republican has achieved since 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election against the Democrat John Kerry.

The only path to victory for Vice President Kamala Harris should be through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Just before 11 p.m. ET, Just senior political analyst Nate Cohn wrote:

“Tonight, for the first time, we assume that Trump is likely to win the presidency. He has an advantage in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would have to defeat all three. There are still many votes left, but in the voting results so far, Trump is narrowly but clearly ahead.”

The paper continued: “Donald J. Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the Electoral College tally. But no swing states have been declared and the race will depend on their results.”

From 11:20 p.m Just predicted that Trump would have an 89 percent chance of a second term while winning with 299 electoral votes: