Observations, warnings issued, inland counties

The National Hurricane Center’s experimental “cone of concern” is active for Tropical Storm Francine, displaying warnings and alerts issued for inland counties.

Francine is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today and make landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Wednesday.

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The new cone will add tropical storm and hurricane warnings for inland counties. The current cone only shows warnings and watches for coastal counties.

Tropical Storm Francine: Compare the new “cone of worry” with the old version

Use the slider to compare the old problem cone with the new version now released by the National Hurricane Center.

What is the difference between the old and new problem cones used by the Hurricane Center?

NHC introduces new warning cone: What you should know

The National Hurricane Center introduced a new, experimental warning cone in August. Here’s what’s changed.

The new test cone will reflect the observations and warnings issued for the inland counties.

Previously, the NHC’s cone of concern showed the projected path of a tropical storm or hurricane, as well as the timing of the storm and any watches and warnings for coastal areas only.

While the new graphic still contains the same information, it also illustrates potential impacts for areas away from the coast.

The National Hurricane Center said the watches and warnings take precedence over the cone.

Differences you will see:

Observations and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecast.

New hurricane center hopes new cone will end fixation on Saffir-Simpson scale

Video: Hurricane categories explained

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a rating from 1 to 5 based on the sustained wind speed of a hurricane.

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“We’re excited. This is a big step forward for us and the people we serve. It’s a better way to communicate information,” Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a phone interview in July.

“We hope this will stop people fixating on less reliable tools like the Saffir-Simpson scale. There are more accurate ways to determine the true impact of wind in your community and your home.

“The Saffir-Simpson scale cannot give you an estimate of what the true impacts may be where you live. The Saffir-Simpson scale tells you the highest wind speeds (associated with a tropical storm or hurricane), but those values may not necessarily be what you experience in your community.

“A Category 5 hurricane over Vero Beach does not mean that there are Category 5 winds everywhere in Vero Beach. You can’t draw any conclusions about the impacts or threats from that,” Rhome said. “People misinterpret the local impacts, with some overestimating the threat and others underestimating it,” Rhome said.

“Explicit high wind watches and warnings (in your county) allow you to prepare for tropical storms or hurricanes, depending on your location.”

Because the focus previously was on warnings and alerts along Florida’s coast, many inland residents and visitors were unaware of the wind hazards an approaching storm could bring far from the coast. The new cone puts the focus on warnings and alerts inland.

“The biggest change to the cone is the addition of the inland wind warnings. The National Weather Service has been issuing those for years. We’re putting that information on the (NHC) cone to give a more comprehensive view of the threat so people don’t have to go to two different websites. All the information is seamlessly combined.”

Where can you find the new “cone of worry” on the National Hurricane Center website?

Go to the National Hurricane Center main website.
When there is an active storm, you can find a breakdown of information about each storm, including public warnings and forecast discussions. Click on the public warnings for the storm you are interested in. Here is the link for Francine.
Further up in the note you will find more links, this time also for graphics. Click on graphics. Here is the link for Francine.
You will see several different graphics that the NHC meteorologists are releasing about the storm. Click on the one labeled “Warnings/Static Cone Images.”
Below you can see an image of the old cone that you are above, but above it you can also see the text highlighted in red “Click here to go to the new experimental cone.”
They’re here! The image you see is the new experimental cone that shows the observations and warnings in effect for the inland counties.

NHC plans to keep the old cone for a while

“The existing cone will still be there. If you’re not ready to upgrade to the new cone, the old one will still be available everywhere,” Rhome said.

“Whenever you bring something new to market, there can be a ramp-up period as people get used to the new way of looking at their risk.”

National Hurricane Center seeks public feedback on new concern cone

“The new one will replace the existing cone after one to two years of feedback.

“If there is clear feedback – the colors are wrong, something is unclear, the legend is confusing – we make further changes. We want feedback to verify that the changes are achieving the desired result,” Rhome said.

➤ Give feedback on the new cone

“I guess there will be opinions for further additions and refinements and then there will be another year of testing with more feedback” before the new cone replaces the current cone, Rhome said.

When the new cone is posted on the NHC website, there will be a link to a short survey. Rhome said any feedback received will be reviewed to decide how to proceed.

Follow our coverage of Tropical Storm Francine and the Tropics

➤ In a hurry? Here’s what’s happening with Tropical Storm Francine – in less than a minute.

➤ Tropical Storm Francine is likely to develop into a hurricane before making landfall

➤ Tropical observation, September 10: Peak of hurricane season reached. NHC tracks Francine, 2 tropical waves

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