On the home stretch: Vice President Harris fills Democrats with optimism as Election Day approaches

Vice President Harris filled Democrats with optimism as the 2024 election cycle approaches the home stretch.

There were real concerns that continuing President Biden’s campaign could reduce Democratic turnout, jeopardizing Democrats’ chances of retaking the House of Representatives and even holding the Senate.

But Harris’ rapid rise to the top of the electoral list changed everything.

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Fundraising for House Democrats soared, especially in July. House Democrats were already ahead of their Republican counterparts by the end of June. GOP leadership implored rank-and-file Republican members to donate more money. GOP leadership urged Republicans to shell out money to secure the Republican majority.

“The response has been great. Everyone has stepped up. Many have pledged more money to the committee,” said Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). “We don’t have to keep up. But we have to play along.”

Democrats need to win only a handful of seats to gain control of the House. California and New York are ripe for Democrats to pick up seats. But they also need to protect vulnerable Democrats in Republican or contested districts. Consider Reps. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Washington).

Vice President Kamala Harris is pictured in front of the US Capitol. (Getty Images)

Frankly, it’s difficult for Democrats to hold onto the Senate. The Senate currently has 50 senators who caucus with the Democrats and 49 Republicans. One seat is temporarily vacant following the resignation of former Senator Bob Menendez (DN.J.) following his conviction on corruption charges. Senator Joe Manchin (IW.V.) is currently a member of the Democratic caucus. However, he is retiring. West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) is expected to win that seat for the Republicans. Democrats must defend several highly contested seats in either red or swing states. Democrats up for election this fall include Senators Bob Casey (D-Penn.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.). Democrats are also trying to hold onto seats in swing states like Michigan and Arizona. Senators Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ireland), who works with the Democrats, are both retiring.

But Democrats are brimming with optimism, in part because they believe they can sell a more optimistic message than former President Trump’s rhetoric.

“(Vice President) Kamala Harris is an inspiring young candidate. A fresh face that people in this country have been looking for,” said Senator Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). “Donald Trump is very polarizing and there are people who want to go out in large numbers and vote against him.”

Democrats now believe that battleground states at the presidential level could decide her Senate seat. The theory is that if Vice President Harris wins in Michigan, it will increase the chances that Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan will defeat former Rep. Mike Rogers of Michigan in the race to succeed Stabenow. Or if former President Trump wins in Nevada, Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown could unseat Rosen.

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“Michigan is the center of the political universe. You can’t be president if you don’t win Michigan,” Peters said. “We won’t have a majority in the Senate if we don’t elect Elissa to the U.S. Senate. She has to win. It’s all on us.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., is even arguing to run for Senate Majority Leader again next year.

“We will hold the Senate again. And we are ready to gain seats,” Schumer said.

It is a real challenge for the Democrats to win seats.

We have already mentioned West Virginia. Even if the Democrats have the majority and hold all the above-mentioned seats, that only gives the Democrats 50. Sure, the Democrats could still be in the majority if it’s 50/50. It’s been common (but not set in stone) for the last quarter century that the party that secures the presidency gets the Senate majority in an evenly divided Senate. That’s because the vice president — as president of the Senate — can break stalemates. So yes, a potential Vice President Walz could help Democrats to the majority. But the only other path for Democrats to a Senate majority is to take out Republican incumbents.

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks behind bulletproof glass during a campaign rally at the North Carolina Aviation Museum & Hall of Fame in Asheboro, North Carolina, August 21, 2024. (Photo by PETER ZAY/AFP via Getty Images)

But here’s the problem: The Republican seats up for grabs this year are in Republican states. It’s doubtful that Senators John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) will lose. Former President Trump won nearly 70 percent of the vote in Wyoming four years ago. Mr. Trump won 65 percent of the vote in North Dakota in 2020.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), leads Republicans’ efforts for Senate re-election, scoffed at Schumer’s proposal.

“He would have to win Texas and Florida. He would have to beat (Sen.) Ted Cruz, R-Tex., and (Sen.) Rick Scott, R-Fla. That’s just not going to happen,” Daines said on Fox. “They’re running like they’re five points behind when they’re actually eight to nine points ahead.”

Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will step down from his leadership post later this year but will remain on the committee. McConnell wants to create a new Senate majority as one of his last acts as the chamber’s leading Republican.

“I would rather hand my job over to the majority leader than the minority leader,” McConnell said. “And that’s what I’m focused on doing right now.”

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McConnell is warning voters about what he believes Democrats will do if they hold the Senate.

“Schumer is talking about eliminating the filibuster tactic,” McConnell said.

Manchin and Sinema are two of the Senate’s most ardent defenders of tradition. But they are retreating. Some on the left have long been pressuring Democratic leaders to torpedo the filibuster tactic.

“I think with a simple majority in the Senate, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico would be admitted as states,” McConnell said.

He claims that means four new Democratic senators “forever, which significantly weakens our side.”

Of course, it is unclear whether the Democrats would hold the Senate. And then the filibuster tactic would be abolished. And it is by no means guaranteed that all potential senators from Washington, DC and Puerto Rico would be Democrats. Let alone “forever.” When Alaska and Hawaii became states in 1959, Alaska was supposed to be the “Democratic” state and Hawaii the “Republican” state. However, the politics of both states have evolved over time. Alaska is more Republican today. Hawaii is more Democratic.

U.S. Democratic candidate for Vice President and Governor of Minnesota Tim Walz takes the stage on the third day of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on August 21, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois, USA. (REUTERS/Mike Segar/Pool)

Republicans are skeptical that Democrats can maintain their lead after Chicago.

“They’re on a sugar high right now. I think they’ll come down from that after the convention. And the real campaign starts after Labor Day,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (Republican of Louisiana) on Fox. “We’re going to expand the majority and we’re very optimistic about November.”

In politics, parties that have favorable poll ratings sometimes act cautiously to deliberately dampen expectations, and then surprise everyone when their candidates actually win.

This is certainly not the case, as Schumer predicts a victory in the Senate and Johnson predicts success in the House of Representatives.

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But politics is also about getting voters fired up. We are in the home stretch. And both sides are trying to electrify voters before November.