Phillies playoff scenario in view: The hunt for the NL East and a bye in the first round continues

The Phillies have a 99.6 percent chance of making the MLB postseason, but there is no reason to worry this season.

But the Phillies still have a lot at stake. With a seven-game lead in the NL East, their first division title since 2011 is in sight. And so is the chance to take a few days off in early October – something that seems extremely tempting for a team as struggling as the Phillies.

In addition, there are some extremely exciting and relevant wild card races taking place in the National League that could have a major impact on the Phillies’ chances in the World Series.

Here’s a look at the current standings and what the Phillies need to do to secure a preferred playoff spot:

The NL East

There are 23 games and seven series left in the regular season. The Phillies lead the division by seven games over the Braves but will not face them again. However, they will face the Mets seven times, who are 7.5 games back and a half game behind Atlanta for the final wild-card spot.

That means, oddly enough, Braves fans become Phillies fans during those games, three the next weekend in Philly and four the following week in Queens.

The magic number that will allow Philly to win the division is 17, and the magic number that will allow them to knock off the Mets is 16. That means a combination of Braves and Mets wins and losses that reaches that number will give the Phils the win.

The 2007 Mets had a seven-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East and then lost 12 of their final 17 games, with the Jimmy Rollins Phillies winning the damn thing on the final day of the season. There’s still a lot of baseball left.

The number 1

Being the NL’s best player comes with a few advantages – the biggest of which is home field advantage in every round of the postseason. Philly has the most home wins in baseball this season, and their postseason home field advantage has been overwhelming in each of the last two October games.

Here’s a look at all of baseball (including the AL) and where things stand on September 5th:

The NL is in good shape to host the World Series this year, and the Phillies are just one winning game away from pole position (they have the tiebreaker against the Dodgers).

A bye in the first round

Just as important – if not more important – is the automatic Divisional Round berth offered to the top two teams in each league. The Phillies have a relatively comfortable 2.5 games lead over the Brewers for this second bye.

Based on recent history, it’s a little debatable whether the bye period is a good thing. It offers between four and five days off for a baseball team that has played 162 games without more than one day off (aside from the All-Star break) for six months. The Phillies actually benefited from not having a bye in their last two seasons. They breezed through the best two of three wild-card rounds. In 2022, they swept St. Louis and then beat the rested Braves in four games. In 2023, they swept the Marlins and beat the rested Braves again in four games.

In these last two postseasons, teams with a first-round bye reached the divisional round with a record of 3-5.

Still, the Phillies should be in the column of those who want a break. Bryce Harper is hurting. So is Alec Bohm. The pitchers could definitely use some rest, not to mention that in the short best-of-three format, there’s always a chance of an upset in the wild-card round.

The schedule could do the Phillies a huge favor in all three races mentioned above. A look at the remaining strength of the NL playoff contenders:

The Mets have a tough task. The Dodgers have an easy task. But the Phillies have an easier road ahead of them than the Brewers – who they face in less than two weeks – and the Diamondbacks. It’s very possible that with the three games they play in Milwaukee from September 16-18, they have a chance to all but secure second place, just as they won the NL East last week with three of four victories against the Braves.

There is still nearly a month of action left, but the Phillies will fight tooth and nail to secure a postseason spot for the third consecutive year.

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