Political winners and losers of 2024

TV channels

More than $10.5 billion was spent on advertising this season, most of it on television. Advertising spending has risen by $1 billion since 2020, barely more than 10% higher than in the four highest-inflation years since the 1970s, making political advertising a bargain compared to food price increases. Democrats spent $5 billion on advertising, compared to $4.1 billion for Republicans. In 23 states, voters were bombarded with more than $100 million worth of ads. Pennsylvania stands out as a top gainer with more than $1.5 billion in advertising spending, the first time a state has surpassed the billion-dollar mark.

Social media

For the first time, presidential campaign and candidate podcasters and influencers were treated on an equal footing with traditional media. The numbers explain why: 54% of adults said they regularly check social media for news, while 40% of young adults said they regularly turn to TikTok for news. The changes in news consumption are even more pronounced among Generation Z. 63 percent use social media for news at least once a week. For this reason, political advertising spending is increasingly shifting to social media. Future Forward, a pro-Harris PAC, spent $225 million on digital advertising this cycle.

African American men

For the first time in recent memory, the Democratic Party is not taking the voices of black men for granted, but is actually paying attention to them. True, much of that attention has focused on the Obamas and other surrogates berating and shaming black men, as if failing to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris amounted to a betrayal of their racial identity. When this blatant appeal to racial solidarity failed, Harris pivoted to an “economic opportunity agenda for black men” in mid-October. With both major parties now competing for their loyalty, this part of the electorate can expect to grow in influence.

Associated Press

This storied news outlet deserves a Pulitzer Prize for revealing the truth about President Joe Biden’s “garbage” remark. In an election season in which almost all legacy media outlets have been outrageously biased in their reporting, the Associated Press took a deep dive into Biden’s denigration of Trump supporters as “trash.” Using insider tips and copies of White House emails to back it up, the outlet revealed how the White House press office and Oval Office manipulated Biden’s remarks to make them seem like a rebuke of comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, who joked that Puerto Rico was one island of floating trash, rather than a vilification of Trump’s supporters.

State and local government

Former President Ronald Reagan was a big supporter of federalism, whose main doctrine is that government is best when it is close to the people. He advocated for decentralizing federal programs and returning funds to the states through block grants. Gallup’s most recent survey of Americans’ views of government supports Reagan’s vision. Only 37% of adults said they believe the federal government is best at solving domestic problems, while 55% believe state government is more effective and 67% have confidence in local government. If Tuesday’s winner wants to strengthen federalism and transfer power to state and local governments, the public is ready.

Women’s and girls’ sports

When Italian boxer Angela Carini withdrew from the Paris Olympics this summer, she sparked a searing controversy in women’s sports that is playing out this election cycle. From school board elections to the House and Senate, the question of whether biological men compete in women’s sports is front and center. It has been featured in political advertisements, debates and media interviews. In mid-October, a majority of players on the University of Nevada, Reno women’s volleyball team voted not to play a game against San Jose State because their team had a biological male present. Instead of blacklisting the players, UNR supported them. The backlash against men competing in women’s sports has just begun, making female athletes winners in this election cycle.

Now for some losers:

Legacy Media

It’s hard to know where to start in this category. The decline of legacy media since the advent of the Internet seems limitless. Gallup reported that trust in the media has continued to decline. Sixty-nine percent of adults said they had no trust in legacy media, making it the “least trusted” institution in their survey. Only 31% of Americans have “a lot” or “quite a lot” of self-confidence, the majority of whom are Democrats. Republicans and independents are deeply skeptical of traditional media, a significant decline from the 1970s, when 68% to 72% of Americans trusted the media to report accurately and fairly. No wonder traditional media is losing ground to podcasters, influencers and Substack.

The Cheneys

Former Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, are losers no matter who wins the presidency. If former President Donald Trump wins, the Cheneys will be forgotten. However, if Harris wins, they will be responsible not only for Trump’s defeat, but also for the consequences of Harris’ unbridled policies. The Cheneys will not be forgiven if Harris gives us four more years of Biden’s agenda, and if Liz Cheney becomes the token Republican in a Harris Cabinet, she will be held even more accountable for a second term of emboldened progressive activism.

Mark Cuban

When Cuban attacked Trump’s female supporters as weak fools, he not only branded himself as an elite male chauvinist, but also revealed his ignorance. Days after Cuban’s baseless insult to the women who served in Trump’s Cabinet and the White House during his first term, the Wall Street Journal Cuban gave the journalistic equivalent of the middle finger by publishing a front-page portrait of Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign manager and mastermind of his political comeback. (Full disclosure: I had a passing acquaintance with Lanny Wiles, Ms. Wiles’ ex-husband, when all three of us worked in the White House during Reagan’s first term.) Cuban’s misogynistic outburst may not have cost him his spot on Shark Tank, but it did will also not increase the show’s ratings.

60 minutes

Whether or not Trump will collect a penny in his $10 billion lawsuit against CBS is a matter of debate at the network 60 minutes Franchise is a loser. The show’s producers reportedly edited Harris’ interview to make her answers appear more coherent. In the past, CBS has released full transcripts of its interviews, but in Harris’ case, the company refused to disclose the unredacted transcript. The longer CBS fights the lawsuit, the more attention it draws, leaving viewers to form their own conclusions about the show’s credibility.

Then there is the ultimate loser of 2024:

Biden

Biden came into office claiming to be revered as a transformative president, like former President Franklin D. Roosevelt. However, he will leave as one of the biggest losers since former President Jimmy Carter. With an approval rating of 38.2, Biden’s presidency is on track to surpass the low mark for presidential approval set by Carter 44 years ago. Biden’s single term in office has given us the worst inflation since Carter, a spike in murders and other violent crimes, an unprecedented immigration crisis, a spate of anti-Semitism, smash-and-grab rings looting upscale department stores, and much more. The out-of-control, The radical left-wing progressive wing of the Democratic Party sought to dictate every aspect of American life.

Internationally, Biden’s legacy includes ending former President Barack Obama’s “emergency war” and nation-building in Afghanistan with a humiliating withdrawal that brought the Taliban back to power. Our enemies are now advancing from Ukraine into the Middle East. Biden’s failure to increase defense spending to address the growing threat from China makes the 1970s phrase about the “window of vulnerability” relevant again in relation to the Soviet Union. His successor will inherit all these problems.

However, the ultimate sign that he is a loser is that Biden’s own party excluded him from the list. This may not have been an easy task for Democratic insiders. As anyone with aging relatives knows, convincing Grandpa that it’s time to hand over his car keys is hard enough, let alone forcing a stubborn octogenarian like Biden to give up the presidency. Towards the end of the campaign, “Angry Joe” couldn’t contain himself, attacking Trump supporters, calling at least 74 million Americans “trash” and then trying to hide his disdain for the political opposition by giving the White House press office a fake transcript of his statements issued comments. In doing so, Biden has further destroyed his miserable legacy as president.

If Harris loses, don’t expect Biden to quietly leave the stage. He will be bitter and vengeful and spend every day from now until January 20 issuing regulations and executive orders aimed at undermining Trump.

If he follows in Carter’s footsteps, Biden’s team will burn the White House to rubble on the way out. I was in the White House in January 1981. Carter’s staff had left behind half-eaten sandwiches in desk drawers, ashtrays full of cigarette butts, brochures and bound government reports scattered throughout the offices, and damaged furniture, walls, and paint.

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John B. Roberts II is a former political strategist and executive producer for the McLaughlin Group. His latest book is Reagan’s Cowboys: Inside the 1984 re-election campaign’s sting operation against Geraldine Ferraro. His website is jbrobertsauthor.com