Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori Pick, 14.09.2024 Predictions UFC 306 Odds

Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Qileng Aori

UFC306

The Sphere in Las Vegas

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Raul Rosas Jr. will step into the Octagon against Qileng Aori at UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The moneyline has Jr. at -770, while Aori is valued at +525.

Raul “El Nino Problema” Rosas Jr. comes into this fight with a record of 9-1-0. The 19-year-old weighs 135 pounds and measures 5 feet 9 inches. The switch fighter has a wingspan of 67 inches. Qileng “The Mongolian Murderer” Aori measures 5 feet 7 inches and weighs 135 pounds. The orthodox fighter enters the cage with a mark of 25-11-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old extends his reach to 69 inches. As for significant punches, Raul Rosas Jr. lands 1.12 per minute and Qileng Aori lands 5.31 significant punches per minute. Rosas Jr. lands 43% of the significant punches he attempts and Aori lands 50%. When it comes to defense in the cage, “El Nino Problema” allows 1.41 significant strikes per minute and “The Mongolian Murderer” allows 6.03. Rosas Jr. also stops 47% of the significant strikes thrown at him and Aori is able to block 47% of the strikes thrown at him.

When it comes to grappling, Raul Rosas Jr. is the more skilled wrestler, as he takes his opponents to the mat 4.39 times per 3 rounds. Rosas Jr. gets a takedown on 38% of his attempts and prevents 15% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. Aori gets his opponents to the mat on 46% of his takedown attempts and prevents 58% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. As for the sub, Rosas Jr. is the more skilled technician, as he attempts 1.8 finishes per 3 rounds while Aori gets 0.8 finishes per 15 minutes.

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In his previous fight, Raul Rosas Jr. faced Ricky Turcios and got the win via rear naked choke in round 2. Turcios landed 64 of 78 punches he threw in total in that fight. Jr. finished that fight with 25 of 34 total punches. In terms of significant punches, Turcios landed 7 of 15 for a 46% rate. He ended up landing 3 of 10 significant punches aimed at the head. On the other hand, Jr. landed 33% of his significant punches by landing 3 of 9. In terms of placement of those significant punches, he landed 2 of 7 to the head. 85% of the significant punches Turcios landed and 66% of the punches thrown by Jr. were counted from distance.

In his last fight, Qileng Aori fought Daniel Marcos and the fight ended in a draw due to low blows for Aoriquileng in round 2. Marcos landed 85% of his long range punches while Aori landed 95% of his long range punches. Aori landed 47% of his attempted long range punches by landing 45 of 95. In the end, he landed 26 of 71 serious punches to the head. Marcos landed 81 of 126 serious punches in this fight. Of those serious punches, he landed 50 of 84 to the head. As for the total number of punches attempted in this fight, Marcos landed 84 of 129 and Aori landed 45 of 96 of his punches.

Other fights on the map to watch out for

Another fight to look forward to is Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso will look to add a win to her career record of 16-3-1. The 31-year-old weighs 125 pounds and is 5’5″. The orthodox fighter has a reach of 66″. Shevchenko is 5’5″ and 125 pounds. The southpaw has a record of 23-4-1. The 36-year-old has a reach of 66″. In grappling, Alexa Grasso is scoring a takedown 0.41 times per 3 rounds and Valentina Shevchenko is scoring 2.56 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Grasso is landing 4.67 punches/minute and 43% of her strike attempts are successful. On the other side of the cage we have Valentina Shevchenko, who is hitting 52% of her punches and averaging 3.28 per minute.

If you’re watching the fights, don’t miss Norma Dumont taking on Irene Aldana. Aldana enters the Octagon with a record of 15-7-0. The 36-year-old weighs 135 pounds and measures 5 feet 9 inches. The orthodox fighter stands 68 inches tall. Dumont is 5 feet 7 inches tall and fights at 135 pounds. The orthodox fighter enters the cage with a record of 11-2-0. The 33-year-old stands 67 inches tall. As far as grappling goes, Irene Aldana stops 76% of her opponents’ takedowns and scores a takedown on 50% of her attempts. Dumont pins her opponents on 68% of her attempts and fights off 72% of all takedown attempts. As far as striking goes, Aldana takes 6.33 punches per minute and dishes out 5.24 punches per minute. Dumont, on the other hand, takes 1.89 punches per minute and gives out 3.11 per minute.

Who will win today’s UFC fight against the spread?

Guy Bruhns tip: Take Raul Rosas Jr. (-770)

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