Status of the 7 who will decide the election

The Electoral College may not be an ideal system for determining the president, but it is what we have. The voters representing most states have long been committed to Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, meaning the election is likely to come down to a handful of key swing states: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada .

Harris and Trump have devoted most of their resources to these seven battlegrounds. Trump lost all of them except North Carolina in 2020, but the margins were razor-thin and it looked like the results would be just as close this year.

Many believed that Iowa could also be in the race, as the study’s lauded pollster Ann Selzer said Des Moines Register released a pre-election poll showing Harris winning the state by three percentage points. But that wasn’t the case, with the Associated Press calling on the state and its six electoral colleges to vote for Trump relatively early on Tuesday.

Here’s a guide to the state of play in the states that will decide America’s next president:

GEORGIA

Electoral votes: 16

Status: Trump won Georgia, and the Associated Press called the state for the former president at 12:58 a.m. EST. Trump took an early lead in the state, improving his results there in 2020 and continuing to increase margins. Earlier Tuesday, several polling stations in Democratic-leaning counties were hit by bomb threats. The FBI said many of the threats “appear to originate from Russian email domains.”

The biggest surprise of the 2020 election may have been Biden turning Georgia blue. It’s the only battleground state where Republicans have a three-way governing coalition, and Trump’s MAGA allies did everything they could to deliver a red result this time. Harris’ team made a strong push in the state – including a high-profile target rally in Atlanta with Obama and Bruce Springsteen – but it wasn’t enough.

NORTH CAROLINA

Electoral votes: 16

Status: The Associated Press called North Carolina for Trump at 11:18 p.m. EST.

North Carolina represents an unlikely battleground in the South, considering Trump won there relatively comfortably in both 2016 and 2020. Harris and Trump both spent a lot of time there, although Trump forgot where he was at his final rally in the state on Sunday. A complicating factor for the former president was Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who was slammed after it was revealed he had made a series of disturbingly bigoted comments on a porn forum.

It didn’t matter.

PENNSYLVANIA

Electoral votes: 19

Status: Too early to tell.

Pennsylvania is widely seen as the key to the election. Trump won the Keystone State in 2016, Joe Biden narrowly won here in 2020, and the path to the presidency is extremely narrow for both candidates this year unless they secure the state’s 19 Electoral College votes.

Harris and Trump have both spent a lot of time and money in the Keystone State, where some of the race’s most significant moments took place. Trump was shot in the ear at a rally in Butler in July. In October, he returned to the site of the attack, bringing with him newly minted deputy Elon Musk. The only debate between Harris and Trump took place in Philadelphia, where Harris also met with Bret Baier on Fox News.

Both campaigns highlighted the state’s importance by gathering there the day before the election, with Harris wrapping up her campaign with a star-studded event in Philly.

MICHIGAN

Electoral votes: 16

Status: Too early to tell.

Trump won Michigan by three-tenths of a percentage point in 2016, but lost it to Biden by nearly three points in 2020. Polls suggest it will be close this year, but a complicating factor for Harris is the state’s large Arab-American population and his opposition to the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel’s bombing of Palestinians in Gaza. The state’s “non-binding” move led 100,000 people to withhold their vote for Biden in the Democratic primary, and they have since put pressure on Harris to distance himself from the president in Gaza. She hasn’t done this yet.

WISCONSIN

Electoral votes: 10

Status: Too early to tell.

Hillary Clinton famously neglected Wisconsin during her 2016 campaign, losing the state to Trump by less than a point. Four years later, Biden won by less than a point, and in 2024 the state could be just as close. Both parties appear to appreciate his importance, with Republicans holding their convention in Milwaukee and Harris meeting with Barack Obama there on Sunday.

ARIZONA

Electoral votes: 11

Status: Too early to tell.

Arizona was one of the most hotly contested states in 2020, and Republicans were outraged when Fox News became the first network to call the state for Biden. The fallout was arduous as the GOP-led recount effort failed to produce evidence of fraud and was potentially criminal, with the state accusing a number of Trump allies of trying to skew the state’s results.

NEVADA

Electoral votes: 6

Status: Too early to tell.

Nevada has long been considered a challenge and could be close again this year. Nevada Republicans had a 50,000-vote lead over Nevada Democrats at the end of early voting, which isn’t a good sign for Democrats considering they’re the ones who typically show up in droves before Election Day. Still, state election guru Jon Ralston predicted Monday that Harris would win the state by a narrow margin.