The election betting market has exploded this presidential cycle

• The betting markets are booming in the run-up to the US presidential election.
• Kalshi attracted $100 million in bets this month and is the top free financial app in the Apple App Store.
• Robinhood is getting in on the action, announcing its own election betting platform on Monday.

Betting markets are experiencing a difficult period in the 2024 presidential election cycle.

The popularity of platforms that allow users to bet on political bets has exploded. Websites like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on specific election outcomes. Robinhood is the latest platform to join in: The popular brokerage app is announcing the launch of its own election betting contracts on Monday.

Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court granted Kalshi permission to open its election betting platform to US citizens. Since then, the platform has won more than $100 million in bets surrounding who will win the November 5 election.

Kalshi is skyrocketing in popularity on the Apple App Store, becoming the No. 7 top free app as of Tuesday morning. Among free financial apps, Kalshi is the top download, surpassing Cash App, PayPal, and Venmo.

“I think we’re aiming for No. 1 across the App Store by Election Day, so the demand curve is really exponential,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Monday.

Meanwhile, Polymarket, which is not open to US residents, has seen an explosive increase in trading volume this year.

According to The Block, nearly $2 billion was wagered on Polymarket’s website in October, about four times the $533 million wagered in September and more than 10 times the $39 million wagered in April.

Before 2024, monthly trading volume on Polymarket was typically less than $20 million.

The block

Although not available to US users, Polymarket has attracted a lot of attention and shaped the discussion about these betting platforms in the US media in the final stretch of the election cycle. That’s because the odds of the election outcome on the agenda are very much in favor of former President Donald Trump, in stark contrast to the polls, which are extremely close a week before the vote.

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The bets themselves on the platform were also subject to close scrutiny. Some of Polymarket’s trading volume this month came from a giant “whale” trader who bet more than $30 million on the outcome of the US election, at times placing up to 71 bets per minute. The bets were mostly on Trump winning the presidential election.

Interactive Brokers also entered into a series of election betting contracts earlier this month after the court ruled to allow Kalshi to operate.

Between the rapid legalization of sports betting, the continued popularity of crypto trading, and the sudden surge in interest in election odds, there is a clear convergence of opportunities for the average person to make money – and in many cases, lose money – through a few clicks on your cell phone. It is a situation in which everyday hobbies are financialized.

Kalshi CEO Mansour said the boom in betting markets is a good thing because it allows for a new arbiter of truth based on money.

“Now if you ask a question: Will TikTok be banned? Who do we rely on to get this answer? Now there is a market-based mechanism that we can pay attention to,” Mansour said.

A job posting on his website says Kalshi’s mission is “to bring more truth to the world through the power of markets.”