The peak of the hurricane season threatens the US Gulf Coast

It’s as if nature reads the calendar, too. Much has been made of the recent slumber of the Atlantic hurricane season. The lull in August surprised many scientists, as ocean temperatures were correspondingly warm and an active season was predicted. I suspect Saharan dust, drier air, and upper atmosphere conditions were the cause of the reduced activity, but that’s another story. The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is upon us, and with it the next threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s Sunday morning forecast, there is an 80% chance of an extensive low pressure system developing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the next two days and a 90% chance of developing within the next seven days. NHC forecasters write, “A tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves initially northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas throughout the week.” If you live anywhere between Texas and the Florida Panhandle, you’ll want to pay attention this week.

Water temperatures are warm enough to support further development, but wind shear and dry air will likely limit strengthening. Our best models indicate a tropical depression or tropical storm as the upper limit. However, some of the higher resolution models are leaning toward a slightly more robust system. If the system is named, it will be called Francine. Regardless of its category or name, the system should bring plenty of rain to the Gulf and Southeast this week.

Speaking of Francine, the table below shows that the sixth named storm of a typical Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t occur until August 29. Based on data from the last thirty years, the sixth hurricane is usually expected around October 15. Are we behind forecasts for a hyperactive 2024 season? Yes. Is current activity less than a typical season? No. I suspect we’ll see several storms over the next few months, but probably not 20 to 25 storms as some organizations have predicted.

An average hurricane season produces about fourteen named storms. Of these, seven typically become hurricanes. The graph below shows that we are about at the peak of the Atlantic season, so there is still plenty of time to “catch up.” Hurricanes are destructive and life-changing. I always tend toward the lower end of these forecasts. At the time of writing, it is worth noting that two systems further east in the Atlantic are currently being monitored for development by the National Hurricane Center.