The Prediction: Washington Huskies @ Iowa Hawkeyes

The moment UW’s 2024 schedule was released, two things were clear: the game against Michigan was the start of an absolute challenge midway through the schedule, and the road game against Iowa would go a long way in deciding whether UW exceeded expectations in Jedd Fisch’s first season. That crucial road game is finally here, and with UW a 2.5-point underdog, the challenge looks no less daunting than it did months ago. Can the Huskies improve to 5-2 with a clear win away in Seattle?

Max Vrooman

Welcome to Michigan, Part II. However, the team on the other side is a little worse overall this time, but it’s a 9a away game in local time and not in prime time at home. Iowa’s passing offense doesn’t appear to have improved much despite finally replacing Nepobaby Ferentz. QB Cade McNamara hasn’t thrown a TD pass against a power conference opponent since his actual game against Iowa in the B1G title game in December 2021. That was the same year that McNamara threw for just 44 yards against UW and still shut out Washington during their disastrous Jimmy Lake season. Against FBS opponents this year, McNamara is averaging a 4.8 YPA with 0 TDs and 3 INTs.

This means that Iowa only wants/can run the ball on offense. Kaleb Johnson has been a beast this year, averaging 7.6 YPC and 8 TDs in 4 games against FBS opponents. Ohio State probably has the best defense in the country this year and still managed almost 6 YPC against them. State that he’ll score 150 points against the Husky defense, but as long as they keep him under 175, UW can probably consider it a win (assuming McNamara throws under 100 as expected).

The defense is typically outstanding once again. Linebacker Jay Higgins (39 Tkl, 2 INT, 1 SK) has an argument for being the best LB in the country. CB Jermari Harris (2 INT, 5 PBUs) is also one of the best in the country. The good news for Washington is that they haven’t been an elite pass rushing unit so far and the D-line is definitely a step down from what they just saw against Michigan.

20 points should actually be enough to win this game. Given what we’ve seen from the UW defense, it’s hard to imagine Iowa matching that total on offense. The issue will be whether Iowa is able to score a defensive or special teams TD. Special teams haven’t exactly been Washington’s strength this year, and I could easily see a punt return making a difference. I really thought a clean game against Michigan would give me the confidence to pick the Huskies here. But apparently I still need her to prove it to me outside of Husky Stadium.

Iowa 17 – Washington 16

Mark Schäfer

It’s now Game 6 for the Huskies and it’s going to be a tough environment. With a road game at Kinnick Stadium, an early kickoff and against a team that will be aggressive defensively, the Huskies have their work cut out for them. But I still believe they can do it, and I’ll tell you why.

This Iowa team is similar to Michigan in terms of its offensive identity. They will try to drag you down to their level and force teams to play the Iowa game. Iowa’s “game,” so to speak, is to control the ball and shut down the offense with great defensive play, something DC Phil Parker has had great success with in his 13 years at the helm. Their offense, as mentioned, revolves around the running game, and Kaleb Johnson has been a bright spot at running back for the Hawkeyes. The rest of the offense, coordinated by new OC Tim Lester, is below average but might surprise some people and therefore shouldn’t be overlooked.

The plan, like last week, should be to stop the run and limit Iowa’s time of possession, while the offense’s plan should be to exploit Iowa’s weaker than usual secondary to create opportunities for the run. If we can play our game and the defense can force Iowa’s offense into short possessions, then this should be a hard-fought win for the Huskies!

Washington 21 – Iowa 9

Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images

Andreas Berg

Is UW capable of beating a great running team whose offense leans heavily that way and who plays balanced, physical defense? Sure, they did it a week ago. They are also capable of losing against a team like that. They did it two weeks ago. The biggest difference between these two games is that UW was more efficient against Michigan – they avoided big penalties, turned long drives into touchdowns and won the turnover battle. These elements are outputs, and there are also key differences in the inputs between the two games. Rutgers was across the country on a Friday night. Michigan was at home, in front of a loud home crowd, with the emotion that came from losing in the National Championship Game.

So which of these games is this more like? I’m afraid some of the input is more consistent with the Iowa game. Although Iowa City is much closer than Piscataway, the Dawgs will still cross two time zones and have to kick off at 9 a.m. PT. After the psychological climax of the Michigan game, there is also the risk of mental disappointment. None of these variables need determine the outcome of the game. The coaching staff can go to great lengths to get the team mentally and emotionally ready to play in any environment. However, that hasn’t always been a standout skill for the UW staff this season. My ideal version of this game would involve our three RBs combining for over 100 yards, Will Rogers moving the chains with intermediate passes to Denzel Boston and Giles Jackson, and the defense loading up the box to force Cade McNamara to show why he’s like that many has interceptions than TDs this year. I’m not so confident we’ll reach that ideal again, away from home, at an odd start, against a great defense with a legendary coach.

Iowa 21 – Washington 17

Straight to the top: Washington 1, Iowa 2

ATS: Washington 2, Iowa 1

Average score: Washington 18 – Iowa 16