Tips and odds for “Sunday Night Football”

On Sunday night, a national audience will be introduced to two of the NFL’s most promising young quarterbacks when the Texans host the Bears.

Caleb Williams will make his prime-time debut and CJ Stroud will play his first home game under the lights.

When the Bears have the ball

Although the Bears won their season-opening game last week, it was a difficult debut for Williams, who completed just 14 of 29 passes for 93 yards, averaged a league-low 3.2 yards per attempt and ranked last in EPA+CPOE among all starting quarterbacks.

The first-place finisher has better days ahead, but may have to wait another week as top receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are questionable for this game.

I suspect Odunze will be out of action due to a medial collateral ligament strain, while Allen’s heel will not affect his ability to play.

Williams missed numerous opportunities to connect with Allen, who was the quarterback’s first read 35 percent of the time, the highest on the team, according to Fantasy Points Data.

The Bears’ offensive line performed surprisingly poorly in Week 1 after ranking in the top five in pass and run block win rate last year, according to ESPN.

Guard Teven Jenkins and center Coleman Shelton in particular had problems on the inside.

They face a Texans defensive line that ranked in the top eight in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate last week.

When the Texans have the ball

Stroud had a solid performance in Week 1, finishing with 234 passing yards and two touchdowns.

He ranked sixth in EPA+CPOE and seventh with an adjusted graduation rate of 80.6 percent.

Stroud is a threat to most defensive coverages, especially Cover 3, which the Bears used at the sixth-highest rate (38.3 percent) last year.

Against Cover 3 last year, the quarterback finished third in overall EPA with 8.72 YPA and eight touchdowns with no interceptions.

Nico Collins ranked third in the NFL with 3.67 yards per route run against Cover 3.

Collins will likely face Jaylon Johnson, who ranked second in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade in 2023 and allowed a passer rating of 33.3, the lowest in the league.

The Bears need to try to force Stroud into third-and-long situations where they can increase the pressure.

Chicago ranked first in the NFL in pass rush win percentage in Week 1, and while I believe that was more due to poor pass blocking by the opposition, it is still notable.

To avoid such third-and-long situations, the Texans are expected to use Joe Mixon on the early attempts after he recorded 30 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown last week.

Chicago finished 21st in defensive adjusted line yards after finishing third in that metric in 2023. They will need a comeback performance in run defense.

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The verdict

The forward line for this game was -3.5 for the Texans and the market has probably overreacted with the current line of -6.5.

Williams had difficulties in the first week, but things should get easier for him in the future.

Houston’s defense had some gaps last week, ranking 28th in PFF’s coverage grades. Chicago’s offense, on the other hand, should have a more productive passing game.

According to my numbers, the Texans’ spread is -5.2, so the Bears are lucrative as underdogs on the road.

But I’m waiting for the injury report to see what the status of Allen and Odunze will be, and you should too.

Williams will need all the help he can get to keep up with Stroud in this game.

Recommendation: Bears +6.5 (waiting for injury news for Allen and Odunze)

Why you can bet on the New York Post

Jacob Wayne evaluates college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He has gained 84.5 units in both sports and has achieved an ROI of 6.27%.