Tropical problems for Texas? - Jamesstreeteatery

Invest 90L:

On Thursday evening, the National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system responsible for our rainfall this week as Invest 90L. When this happens, tropical models will begin working with the low pressure system. The area will be studied. There is a 10 percent chance that it will become our next named storm in the next seven days. Our cold front arriving late Friday is moving so far south, so I don’t expect anything to form this weekend.

Low point no. 2:

Another low pressure system in the Caribbean will move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Here too, the probability of formation in the next seven days is low at 20%.

Don’t focus on the opportunities:

While both lows have minimal chances of developing into a tropical storm or hurricane, in my experience, nothing that happens in the Gulf this time of year is to be taken lightly. We are at the height of hurricane season, the Gulf waters are incredibly warm, and wind shear is low. What is lacking is organization. But these lows could quickly develop a dense surface circulation next week.

Make two into one:

As our cold front pulls the low pressure system near Galveston south, the other low pressure system begins to move north. The low pressure systems are not so much merging into one. Rather, the moisture from these disorganized systems is combining into a single area of tropical rain. This is where things get interesting. Our cold front from the weekend will stall and begin to move north late Monday. This will allow the tropical rain to move north as well. Several scenarios are possible at this point.

It will remain disorganized and we will simply get more rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This rain could cause flooding.
A tropical storm forms and the heaviest rain is concentrated near its center.
It is not impossible that the intensity could increase quickly and a hurricane could form. This has happened in the past. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 went from a 30 mph center to a Category 1 hurricane at 90 mph in less than 24 hours. There is a 10% chance that this hurricane will become a hurricane starting Thursday night. If that happens, it would happen on Wednesday.

Early modeling on Invest 90L:

Since this was declared an investment project on Thursday evening, not many tropical models are running yet. But the front could move the low to the southeast, south or southwest. The front will remain in the Gulf and slowly move north next week. The TABM, which comes from the American model, shows that the low is also moving north.

Conclusion:

After Friday’s rain, enjoy our weekend weather. It will be dry with low humidity. But make sure you have our Storm Track 2 app and watch KPRC 2 this weekend. We’ll keep you updated on changes as they happen. The days to keep an eye on are Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.