Tropical storm band southeast of Hawaii is expected to weaken

(BIVN) – The tropical depression that formed in the eastern Pacific on Friday has strengthened into a tropical storm well southeast of the island of Hawaii. However, the cyclone is not expected to last more than a few days.

Tropical Storm Lane, with winds of about 45 mph, was located 1,760 miles east southeast of Hilo Saturday morning. The trail is moving west at about 7 miles per hour.

The National Hurricane Center says slight fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but Lane is expected to weaken Sunday into early next week. It does not appear to pose a threat to Hawaii.

From the National Hurricane Center’s discussion Saturday morning:

Lane continued to produce strong convection over the low-lying center this morning, with cold cloud tops near -80°C. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have increased and range between 35 and 45 kt. Given the ongoing deep convection and using a mix of these satellite estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 40 kt.

Lane continues to move westward at 270/6 kt, and this general movement should continue over the next few days as the storm is steered northward by a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the latest consensus guidance.

Warm sea surface temperatures and a relatively low wind shear environment could allow Lane to strengthen a bit today. Environmental conditions will become more adverse on Sunday as southwesterly shear over the system is expected to increase and the storm is expected to move into a drier air mass early next week, which is expected to weaken Lane. Lane is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low in about 48 hours, although given the system’s small size, it could disappear even sooner than forecast, as shown by some model fields, including the GFS.