Two months before the election victory, the presidential election in Michigan is uncertain, a poll shows

With 63 days to go before the Nov. 5 election, the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in Michigan is neck and neck, according to a new national poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV (Channel 4).

A poll of 600 likely voters in Michigan conducted August 26-29 found that 44.7 percent of respondents supported former President Trump, 43.5 percent supported current Vice President Harris and 7 percent chose a third-party candidate.

However, Trump’s narrow lead of 1.2 percentage points was within the poll’s margin of error, which was plus or minus four points. Likewise, the Republican’s lead was smaller than the percentage of Michigan voters who said they were still undecided: 4.8 percent.

“No matter how you look at this race, it’s neck and neck,” said pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll.

The numbers suggest that Trump enjoyed a small boost in Michigan after former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign on August 23 and endorsed the Republican candidate.

According to the poll results, Harris failed to make a significant gain at the Democratic National Convention, which concluded on August 22. In the last similar poll in Michigan, conducted by The News and WDIV in July, Harris had a narrow lead of 41.6% to Trump’s 41.3%.

Harris has an advantage in the new round of polling among likely voters: A majority of respondents (51 percent) said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Among voters in Michigan who said they would definitely vote in the election, she was slightly ahead of Trump.

Trump was ahead among those who said they would probably vote. But among voters who said they would definitely vote in the fall – 91 percent of respondents – Harris had a small lead of 45.7 percent to 44.1 percent for Trump, while 3.9 percent sided with Kennedy, the poll found.

This dynamic—the need to get Republican-leaning Michiganders to vote—may explain why two of Trump’s recent campaign appearances in the state took place in Republican-favored areas: Howell in Livingston County on August 20 and Potterville in Eaton County on August 29.

“The economy, idiot”

For the new poll, Michigan voters were surveyed by phone from August 26 to 29. Most of them, 83%, were reached by cell phone, while 17% were contacted by landline.

Forty percent of respondents said they were more likely to vote for Democratic candidates, 39% said they were more likely to vote for Republican candidates, and 20% identified themselves as independent.

When asked what the most important issue in the upcoming election was, 19.5% of respondents said jobs and the economy was the top answer. The third most common answer was inflation and cost of living at 12%.

Together, the two answers were named as the main issue by around 32% of participants, i.e. almost one in three. In the July survey, the figure was only 27%.

“We’re back to saying: It’s the economy, stupid,” Czuba said of the results, referring to Democratic political consultant James Carville’s famous campaign slogan when Democrat Bill Clinton defeated Republican President George HW Bush in 1992.

The other most common responses to the question about the most important issue were abortion and women’s rights in second place with 12.5 percent and borders and immigration in fourth place with 9 percent.

The economy’s spotlight could benefit Trump, a businessman who previously hosted a reality TV competition show called “The Apprentice.” The new poll found that 52 percent of Michigan voters said Trump would handle the country’s economy better than Harris. At the same time, 39 percent said Harris would handle the economy better than Trump.

Matthew Evans, a 27-year-old from Monroe, was among the poll respondents who cited the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming election and favored Trump. Evans, who works in banking, said 2019, during Trump’s first term in the White House, was one of his best years financially.

“My purchasing power relative to my salary has decreased over the last few years,” Evans said of his reasons for supporting Trump.

Michigan voters also said Trump would handle border and immigration policy (56%-37%) and foreign policy (49%-44%) better than Harris, but Harris would do a better job of strengthening American democracy (47%-43%) and representing its values (47.1%-45.4%).

Nichole Kolnowski, a 38-year-old from Alpena, said she plans to vote for Harris in November. The most important issue in the race for her is “keeping Trump out,” replied Kolnowski, who said she doesn’t like the way Trump talks about women and his felony conviction.

“It’s not even about him being a Republican,” Kolnowski said. “It’s about him as a human being. He’s a terrible human being.”

The Kennedy Effect

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer and nephew of assassinated President John F. Kennedy, suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump on August 23.

In Michigan, Kennedy was the Natural Law Party’s nominee, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s office has said his name will remain on the ballot, citing state election law. On Tuesday, a state judge denied Kennedy’s request to remove his name from the Michigan ballot.

In the last poll conducted by The News and WDIV in July – before Kennedy called off his campaign – he had the support of 9.7% of Michigan voters. In the new poll, Kennedy was at 4.7%. The Glengariff Group included Kennedy in the poll because he is still on the Nov. 5 ballot in Michigan, which mail-in voters will be able to view in three weeks.

Trump saw an increase in support among self-identified independent voters in Michigan from the July poll to the August poll, while Kennedy saw a decline in support among that group, which Czuba called a “minor gain for Trump.”

The other candidates from the smaller parties together received 2.3 percent of the vote in the poll. The Green candidate, Jill Stein, led this group with 1.3 percent.

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“The economy, idiot”

The Kennedy Effect

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