Ukraine war: Missile restriction on Kiev means more refugees in Germany

When it became clear last week that Hezbollah was about to launch a large-scale drone and missile attack, Israel launched a preemptive strike against dozens of launch sites in Lebanon. This was, to use sophisticated military language, a no-brainer, as it reduced the burden on the air defense systems that the attack was designed to overwhelm. And to our knowledge, it worked.

As controversial as the war in Gaza has become, this was not an unambiguous act of Israeli self-defense against purely military forces in Lebanon. Nevertheless, it is something Ukraine must not do against Russia, despite the fact that it has the most effective weapons in its arsenal.

There are many reasons, both moral and strategic, for Ukraine to lift restrictions on the deployment of allied long-range weapons on Russian soil. But the most important reason for Germany and the United States – Kyiv’s main and most cautious arms suppliers – is that they cannot afford not to do so.

Between Sunday and Monday, Russia fired about 300 heavy drones, as well as cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Unlike Hezbollah, this was not a one-off retaliation. It was part of a winter strategy, and the blackouts that followed suggest that this tactic is likely to succeed as long as Ukrainian forces are incapacitated.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz should be asking himself a difficult question as he prepares for what is expected to be the first state election victory of the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party this weekend: Where does he think the millions of Ukrainians who cannot cook or heat their homes in sub-zero winter temperatures will end up? He should know that it will be Germany.

Despite an embarrassing start, Scholz and his government have made great strides in defending Ukraine. Yet they remain reluctant to deploy Taurus cruise missiles for fear of provoking a nuclear response from Russia. This approach must change before the damage is done in Ukraine, not when it is too late, as has been the case so far.

The Swedish-German Taurus is particularly interesting for Ukraine’s fight against the Russian air war. It has a maximum range of 500 kilometers, which is almost twice that of the Storm Shadow and Scalp-E models from the UK and France respectively. The Taurus can also carry a larger payload and is undetected by radar due to its flight altitude of just 35 meters.

For US President Joe Biden and his aides, the question is more one of cost. According to the Congressional Research Service, a Patriot missile battery costs the Pentagon about $1.27 billion, and the PAC-3 interceptor missiles it uses cost $4 million each. On August 26 alone, Russia fired 102 of the cruise and ballistic missiles designed to shoot down the Patriot missiles, according to the Ukrainian armed forces.