US Open semi-final between Frances Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz: Who will win this epic duel?

NEW YORK – On Friday, under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe will play one of the biggest matches of their respective careers when they meet in the semifinals of the U.S. Open.

Both Fritz, seeded 12th, and Tiafoe, seeded 20th, are looking to reach their first major final.

And the match isn’t just a big deal for them as singles players. Their meeting is the first semifinal of the tournament involving two American men since 2005 and guarantees an American man in a Grand Slam final for the first time since 2009 and the first time at the US Open since 2006.

With so much at stake and both looking to make history in front of a supportive home crowd of 24,000 fans, Friday’s match is set to be as electrifying and memorable as possible. The pair are long-time friends, having played against each other since their early teens – and are considered two of the brightest young stars in the country.

They know each other’s game very well.

“Taylor and I have been talking about being the No. 1 American for a long time,” Tiafoe said after his quarterfinal match. “I remember sitting on the plane a few years ago, and he’s a pretty smug guy and he said, ‘Brother, I think you and I are going to be the No. 1 Americans and take the lead…'”

“I think we’ve always pushed each other. Now I think it’s great that we get to compete in such a big match and I’m happy for him. I know he’s happy for me. Let the best man win on Friday. It’s going to be epic. Popcorn, do what you have to do. It’s going to be a fun game on Friday.”

The semifinals could go either way (so be sure to have popcorn ready), and here’s why both players have a chance to win—and a prediction for how it could play out.

The Fritz case

History is certainly on Fritz’s side. The two have played seven times on tour, and Fritz has won their last six meetings, most recently in the quarterfinals in Acapulco last season. And Fritz, 26, has not only won those matches, but four of them in straight sets, including during their only major meeting at the 2022 Australian Open.

Tiafoe’s only win was more than eight years ago, in the first round of Indian Wells in 2016. So it’s been a while, and Fritz clearly has the edge in this duel.

Fritz has also shown incredible mental strength during his run in New York, having arguably the toughest road to the last four of all the remaining players. His second-round opponent was Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 Wimbledon finalist, but he won in straight sets. He fought back in the fourth round after losing the first set to three-time major finalist Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2.

Playing in the fourth Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career and having never reached a semifinal before, he beat Alexander Zverev, a two-time Grand Slam finalist, in a fourth-set tiebreak to claim the decisive victory. He has managed to overcome his nerves and consistently play his best tennis, even as the attention and pressure continue to mount.

“You know, it’s cool that I’m in the semifinals, but I feel the work is not done yet,” Fritz said Tuesday before knowing who his next opponent would be. “I’m continuing to take it one match at a time like I’ve been doing that all tournament and focusing on the next match that’s in front of me.”

Fritz’s serve has perhaps been his most valuable weapon these two weeks. He has an 83% first serve win rate – the best among the men in the tournament – and he has faced just 17 break points in his five matches. Not to mention that he has been able to use his strong serve in the decisive moments and will no doubt look to do the same against Tiafoe.

The Tiafoe case

Tiafoe, 26, has played all but one of his matches on Ashe’s court at the 2024 US Open, and after defeating Ben Shelton in a five-set thriller 4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3 in the third round, he screamed: “This is my damn house!”

And, well, he’s right in a way. Perhaps no one in recent years has thrilled the crowd and benefited from their stadium support as much as Tiafoe – even in matches where he was the clear underdog. In 2022, he defeated Rafael Nadal in four sets on the court in the round of 16, cementing his status as a crowd favorite and energetic showman.

Although Tiafoe has struggled at times during the year, he has found his rhythm and results during the summer hard-court season. After skipping the Olympics to focus on the surface and his favorite major, Tiafoe has a 14-4 record to reach the final in the recent warm-up event in Cincinnati. He reached the semifinals of the Citi Open in his hometown in early August. Although he did not face Fritz-caliber opponents in New York, he has recorded victories over top-20 players Andrey Rublev, Lorenzo Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune in the last month.

Tiafoe is a dynamic player and shooter – and he believes his past encounters with Fritz will have little impact on the outcome of Friday’s game, where the stakes are higher than ever before.

“Ashe is different, man. It’s different,” Tiafoe said. “Obviously you have to learn from those (past games). You know, I mean, some of them I thought I should have won …

“It’s going to be a big game for both of us to play a final. I don’t think those games are anywhere near as good as this one, so it’s pretty difficult to even advance from there. Playing the quarterfinals of the Acapulco 500 and the semifinals at Arthur Ashe at night – well, hopefully at night – is a little different.”

OK, so who is actually going to win?

It’s safe to assume that nerves will play a role for both players. It’s a huge opportunity for both of them and they won’t be able to forget this moment and what’s at stake. In many ways, it could simply come down to who can control their emotions the best, especially early on. Since both are Americans, every point – no matter who wins it – is likely to elicit cheers and while they will certainly be loud the entire time, they may not carry as much weight as other matches.

By all appearances, Fritz should win. Their head-to-head record suggests that, and his resume in this tournament is far better. But it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting it more than Tiafoe, and he’s spent most of the year focused on his main goal of winning the US Open. He’s peaking at just the right time.

“It’s almost a joke that Frances wakes up in August,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

Although Tiafoe’s opponents haven’t been nearly as experienced or tough as those Fritz faced, he has fought some fights – most notably against Shelton in the third round – and has always found a way to win. Playing in his second major semifinal, he knows what to expect and the emotions that come with it. While it may not be realistic, it feels like this match is a losing one for Tiafoe.

Tiafoe in five sets. As he said earlier in the tournament: “Why not?”