USC let Michigan get away, and now the Trojans’ margin for error is slim

ANN ARBOR, Michigan — USC had the opportunity in its hands. An impressive road victory was inevitable.

The defense had held Michigan back all second half, and the Wolverines — with no threat of a pass attack — needed to go 79 yards with about 2 1/2 minutes left on the clock to win the game. Cornerback John Humphreys had held off Wolverines running back Kalel Mullings, and safety Kamari Ramsey, normally a sure tackler, was closing in.

Mullings spun out of Humphreys’ tackle, evaded Ramsey’s attempt and carried the ball 55 yards down the field to put Michigan in position for the game-winning touchdown.

The result was a bitter 27-24 loss in the team’s first Big Ten game. A game that could have been won – the Wolverines managed 32 yards! – turned into a loss.

Those missed tackles and the ensuing 63-yard run weren’t the only reasons for USC’s loss on Saturday. They were part of several self-inflicted wounds that made up this missed opportunity.

“I thought we put ourselves in position, but you have to finish it,” coach Lincoln Riley said. “You have to make some of those plays at the end. I’m disappointed we didn’t finish it. Disappointed, but certainly not defeated.”

This could prove to be a tragic blow for USC. The Trojans are good. They showed some toughness and grit in the second half after an ugly first half when it looked like they might get away from them. The offense made some key plays after a disastrous 20 minutes and fought back after taking a beating in the face.

USC could be a good team this season and still finish 9-3, a record that might be just enough to keep the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff. The margins in college football are tight. Games like this and a play or two here and there make the difference between 9-3 and 10-2.

USC still has to play Penn State, Notre Dame and Nebraska at home and Washington on the road. There will certainly be a team that can run the ball well enough and whose quarterback can pass for more than 32 yards – but keep in mind that USC will not face a defense like that in that environment the rest of the year.

A win at the Big House would have given the Trojans a real advantage for the rest of the game. What will hurt them and their fans is that they contributed so much to the loss.

Michigan managed 290 yards, which is a staggering total. But it wasn’t like the Wolverines were physically pressuring the Trojans down after down. USC’s defense was out of position and poorly adapted to the running game, leading to some explosive runs – touchdowns of 53 and 41 yards – that allowed the Wolverines to jump out to a 14-0 first-half lead.

Michigan’s offense gained 19 yards on five drives in the second half before Mullings won the game with a 63-yard run.

Those mistakes were avoidable. Miller Moss threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns. He played bravely and confidently considering how often he was hit and how much pressure his offensive line was under at times. But the pick six he threw to Will Johnson in the third quarter proved very costly considering Michigan’s offense was mostly useless in the second half.

Damn, that was pretty 😍 pic.twitter.com/F6ILFsYsn7

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) 21 September 2024

And the offense was a complete mess early in the game. USC didn’t get a first down until the 12th minute of the second quarter. Michigan deserves credit for that. The Wolverines’ defense flattened the Trojans’ offensive line in the first half, eliminating the running game and not giving Moss enough time to score anything up front.

However, USC has not done itself any favors by doing this.

“I just think we didn’t really get into the swing of things offensively until probably halfway through the second quarter,” Moss said. “Obviously, I feel like I did a lot of damage to our team by losing the ball. You can’t afford to do that against a really good team. I’ve got to get a lot better. We’ve got to deal with the environment. We’ll learn from it and get better because of it.”

Riley’s plays were also questionable. USC took a 24-20 lead when Moss threw a 24-touchdown pass to Ja’Kobi Lane with 7:01 left. The Trojans then forced another three-and-out and got the ball back with 5:01 left and a four-point lead.

USC ran for 2 yards on the first attempt and threw short passes on the second and third attempts. Both were incomplete and the Trojans ran a total of 59 seconds off the clock. Even if USC didn’t score, it could have at least run two minutes off the clock and given the faltering Michigan offense even less time to advance down the field.

“I thought I could have done better,” Riley said. “I don’t think I predicted a very good drive there.”

Riley took responsibility, which is good, but USC fans will want better execution more than responsibility in these critical situations.

This loss was reminiscent of the Trojans’ loss at Utah during the 2022 regular season. There were doubts about how USC could physically hold up against a tough, combative opponent in a hostile environment. The Trojans played hard in both games and had opportunities to force their opponents into significant defensive play, but they just didn’t get it done in either game, and their opponents were a bit tougher in the crucial moments.

There were some questions about Riley’s game management in that game, too. And the Trojans have had bad luck with the refereeing in both games. Against Utah, there were some controversial calls for “roughing the passer.” On Saturday, there was a Michigan run on fourth-and-1 that appeared to be called off. The referees gave Michigan the first down without reviewing the call, and the Wolverines scored a touchdown moments later. Questions about whether Riley’s teams can win games like that will linger until they do so on a regular basis.

USC responded well to the loss to Utah. They won the regular season, made it to the Pac-12 title game, and probably only made the playoffs because of an injury to Caleb Williams.

Last year, the Trojans responded terribly to their first loss, a 48-20 loss at Notre Dame, and lost five of their final six regular-season games, finishing 7-5.

How will this year’s team react to this setback?

“The players and coaches in the locker room and the fighting spirit of this football team that you saw here gives me complete confidence,” Riley said when asked why he thinks the reaction to this loss will be different.

This year’s USC team has shown some grit in the first few weeks of the season, but it will need more than that — especially clean football — if it is to navigate the road ahead and achieve its goals.

(Photo by Miller Moss: Junfu Han / Imagn Images)