Watch out for possible weekend developments in the Gulf

We continue to monitor a disturbance spreading northward from the Western Caribbean that could develop over the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Prediction models are not optimistic for this system, as they were for the disruption that led to Helene, and as we mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter, the development is not a slam dunk. However, gradual organization is likely through the end of the week and over the weekend, but the system is not a fast-moving system and will persist in the Gulf region into next week.

Low pressure tracks until next Monday afternoon (October 8) from the European forecast model ensemble system. Each track represents a possible scenario based on different starting conditions. Models continue to advertise a slow-moving and disorganized system, suggesting a one-sided tropical depression or tropical storm, with weather affecting the eastern Gulf and parts through early next week Florida has. Photo credit: Weathernerds.org.

This means that regardless of developments, parts of Florida will likely see a period of rainy weather starting Thursday or Friday and lasting into early next week. Although it is too early to say details about where heavier rainfall could occur, the official forecast for now calls for only modest amounts of rainfall over the next seven days.

Precipitation totals will be determined by the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center through next Tuesday morning (October 8). The higher totals in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of Florida indicate the tropical influence of the system, which will be monitored for possible development this week. Photo credit: Pivotal Weather.

Still, wet and windy weather with the possibility of minor or moderate coastal flooding could impact ongoing recovery efforts in parts of Florida recently hit by Helene, so we should keep an eye on trends.

For us in South Florida, the result could be an increase in storms by the end of the week, but models do not indicate a significant tropical threat at this time.

Roadblocks ahead

Unlike Helene, the Gulf’s impending environmental conditions pose some obstacles to sustainable development. The biggest hurdle will be strong jet stream winds digging into the northern Gulf during the second half of the week and a zone of hostile wind shear nearby will create.

These strong west-east winds aloft could not only hamper development, but are also likely to skew any system of organization, causing most of the weather to blow eastward, putting Florida and the eastern Gulf on the downwind side, where it will be wet comes and windy weather.

Simulated satellite from the European forecast model for next Sunday, October 6th. The model simulation gives a foretaste of what a broad and one-sided system could look like next weekend. Since this is only a solution that is very far in the future, you should expect that the actual details will vary. Those recently affected by Helene in particular should follow the trends, as even a disorganized system could hamper ongoing recovery efforts. Photo credit: Weathermodels.com.

Although moist tropical air will move into the western Gulf by the end of the week, the system is not expected to pose a direct threat to the western Gulf or the Texas Gulf Coast.

Forecast models in recent days have pushed development opportunities towards late weekend and into next week as the system is still on hold, so unfortunately we will have to maintain this issue for a while.

Major hurricanes are returning to the Atlantic

Across the Atlantic, we expect major hurricanes to return in the first full week of October, an unusually late point in the season for strong hurricanes east of the islands. The last major hurricane to hit Atlantic waters east of the Caribbean was Beryl on July 1st.

First, Kirk is expected to strengthen into a powerful Category 3 or 4 hurricane over the central Atlantic by the end of the week.

Although Kirk is turning north and staying over the open Atlantic, the major hurricane’s long-lasting swell could extend as far as the US East Coast – from the Mid-Atlantic to coastal areas in the Northeast – by early to mid-next week.

Behind Kirk, Invest 91L has been designated off the coast of Africa and will develop into a named storm over the next day or two. Computer models show 91L developing into a strong hurricane next week, but like Kirk, it should turn well east of the islands.

Roadblocks ahead

Major hurricanes are returning to the Atlantic

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