What the polls say ahead of the presidential debate between Harris and Trump

The June 27 presidential debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was arguably one of the most consequential in modern history, leading to Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21, less than a month later. The contest has changed dramatically since then: Vice President Kamala Harris has risen to the top of the pack and overtaken Trump in the polls, suggesting she may be overcoming some of the deficiencies voters saw in Biden’s campaign.

Now it is time for another debate.

Harris goes into this debate feeling relatively good, as her approval ratings are rising and she has a small lead in national polls. Plus, her base has been on a wave of enthusiasm following the Democratic National Convention in late August. Her appearance in Philadelphia on Tuesday night could either continue or halt the upward trend, especially as more undecided voters than usual are likely to tune in.

With that in mind, we took a closer look at the numbers to find out what’s on voters’ minds ahead of the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump. Recent polls suggest that voters are fairly positive about Harris’ campaign so far and see her as the favorite to win the debate. Meanwhile, Trump still holds the edge on some of the key issues that are on voters’ minds, but he could be vulnerable to the same ageist attacks his side once leveled at Biden.

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Since she was presumably named the Democratic nominee, Harris’ approval rating has soared. The most recent average of 538 polls puts her at about 46 percent, just below her disapproval rating. That’s much better than the rating she had just before Biden dropped out, when she was about 15 percentage points below the average:

Harris’s rise in popularity represents a notable improvement over Biden, who has been stuck at a net popularity rating of around -15 for most of the year, and is also significantly better than Trump, whose rating has remained largely unchanged since the start of 2024. In our most recent average, he is still nearly 10 points below average (53 percent view him unfavorably and 43 percent favorably).

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 23-27, 56 percent of adults said Harris was doing an excellent or good job on her campaign trail, compared to 41 percent who said the same of Trump, and 53 percent said she was very or somewhat fit to serve as president, compared to 47 percent who said the same of Trump. And in the all-important horse race, she currently leads Trump by about 3 points in head-to-head polls in the national polling average of 538—though her momentum appears to have stalled or waned slightly in recent weeks:

We seem to be at the end of a honeymoon phase for Harris’ campaign, and polls suggest that’s because her candidacy has mobilized some of the many voters who were disillusioned and unenthusiastic about the Trump-Biden rematch. In fact, in the same ABC News/Ipsos poll, 64 percent of her supporters said they strongly supported her, compared to just 34 percent who said that of Biden in early July. In addition, 45 percent of those in the August poll said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the choice between Harris and Trump as presidential candidates, compared to just 28 percent who said that of Biden and Trump in July.

Voters also seem to be channeling some of their positive vibes about Harris into their debate expectations. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 43 percent of respondents said they expected Harris to win Tuesday’s debate, compared to 37 percent who expected Trump to win. That’s the opposite of the last debate, where voters expected Biden to do poorly (and worse than Trump) even before the debate. While higher expectations bode well for the success of Harris’ campaign, they also likely mean she has a higher hurdle to clear than Trump when it comes to impressing voters and meeting expectations. That’s one reason why this week’s debate could be crucial in determining whether Harris’ honeymoon phase translates into sustainable gains or fizzles out.

So what might voters expect from Harris and Trump in the debate? In terms of issues, both candidates will seek to maintain their position on the areas where they have an advantage and narrow their opponents’ lead in the areas where they are weak. Trump has the edge on some of the key issues. According to the ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump has an 8-point lead over Harris when it comes to who Americans are more likely to trust to handle inflation and the economy. Trump also had a 9-point lead on the immigration issue at the U.S.-Mexico border and a 7-point lead on handling the war between Israel and Hamas.

On her most important issues, Harris has an even bigger lead over Trump in this poll: 16 points on abortion and race relations and 10 points on health care. But other recent polls have shown that voters rate these issues as less important than the economy and immigration when voting. (Health care and abortion ranked just behind those two issues on a similar list, while race relations was among the least important to voters.) We expect both candidates to address key issues like abortion (for Harris) and immigration (for Trump), but we’ll also be paying attention to how Harris tries to change the narrative on the economy and immigration—and how well Trump sticks to the issue to extend his lead on those issues.

Of course, debates are often as much about style as substance: Voters will be watching closely to see how the two candidates behave on stage or who comes across as more “presidential.” And when it comes to personal qualities, Harris generally fared better than Trump. Respondents to the ABC News/Ipsos poll were particularly likely to think she was more honest and trustworthy than Trump (43 percent to 25 percent). And she came out ahead when respondents were asked which candidate represented their personal values ​​and understood the problems faced by people like them.

Notably, Harris also outperformed Trump by a wide margin on who Americans believe has better “physical health” and “mental acuity” to serve effectively as president: More than twice as many said Harris was physically healthier (57 percent to 25 percent). That difference underscores one of the most obvious ways Harris’s candidacy has changed the dynamic of this race – she is roughly 20 years younger than both Biden and Trump – and raises the question of whether Trump will face the same age-related concerns that drove Biden out of the race.

There hasn’t been much tradition in this presidential campaign, and after a first presidential debate kicked off the presidential campaign in June, this debate is expected to draw more attention than usual. In an unusually truncated race between Harris and Trump, the candidates have had little time to make their case to voters, and this week’s debate will be one of the most high-profile and high-stakes opportunities to do so. The country will be watching with bated breath to see whether Harris lives up to high expectations and how Trump responds in their first head-to-head meeting.