What the polls say in the final week before the 2024 election

The 2024 presidential election is just eight days away. And the latest major national polls and swing state polls show the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is as close as ever.

National polls

Three websites that aggregate national and state polls – the Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times – currently have the following national polling average:

Silver Bulletin

• Harris: 48.6%

• Trump: 47.4%

Thirty-five

• Harris: 48.1%

• Trump: 46.6%

New York Times

All three show Harris with a narrow lead in the popular vote, but less than two percentage points each – well within the aggregate margins of error.

Swing state polls

The same websites have the following polling averages in the seven battleground states:

Silver Bulletin

• Nevada: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.9%

• Arizona: Trump 49.4% | Harris 47.3%

• Wisconsin: Harris 48.5% | Trump 48.0%

• Michigan: Harris 48.1% | Trump 47.4%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3% | Harris 48.0%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.9% | Harris 47.6%

• Georgia: Trump 49.0% | Harris 47.6%

Thirty-five

• Nevada: Trump 47.5% | Harris 47.3%

• Arizona: Trump 48.6% | Harris 46.8%

• Wisconsin: Harris 47.9% | Trump 47.7%

• Michigan: Harris 47.7% | Trump 47.2%

• Pennsylvania: Trump 47.9% | Harris 47.7%

• North Carolina: Trump 48.4% | Harris 47.1%

• Georgia: Trump 48.6% | Harris 47.1%

New York Times

• Nevada: Harris 48% | Trump 48%

• Arizona: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• Wisconsin: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Michigan: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• Pennsylvania: Harris 49% | Trump 48%

• North Carolina: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

• Georgia: Trump 49% | Harris 48%

“It remains extraordinarily close in the battleground states, and in the seven states likely to decide the presidency, no candidate has a significant lead,” Nate Cohn, the Times’ senior pollster, wrote Monday.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania – the so-called Democratic Blue Wall – are crucial for Harris. In 2016, Trump flipped all three, helping him win the presidency. In 2020, Biden recaptured all three, with Pennsylvania claiming victory.

If the swing state polling averages were accurate, Trump would win the Electoral College in both the Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight models, while Harris would emerge victorious based on the New York Times averages.

These are only average values, not forecasts or race calls. These are determined based on actual votes cast on or before election day.