When Israel attacked Iran, it finally listened to the US. Why?

WASHINGTON— During the 13-month horrific war in Gaza, the United States has repeatedly urged Israel to limit civilian casualties and allow more humanitarian aid.

According to Gaza health authorities, Israel has repeatedly ignored U.S. advice and pleas, killing more than 42,000 Palestinians. The flow of aid has been so slow and often stopped by Israel that many Palestinians are at risk of starvation.

A similar pattern is emerging in the offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US pushed for the bombings to be limited and targeted, but Israel bombed southern Lebanon, Beirut and as far north as Tripoli.

But when it came to Israel’s retaliatory attacks on Iran, the dynamic was different.

Iran fired a barrage of nearly 200 rockets into Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israel’s killing of several senior commanders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Most were intercepted by Israeli forces and air defense systems with support from the US and Britain.

Israel immediately promised to take revenge. The question was when and how.

President Biden called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid attacks on nuclear research sites and oil fields. And when Israeli fighter jets fired missiles at Iran on October 26 in the largest operation of its kind to date, they hit mostly military targets and only four people – all soldiers – were reportedly killed.

Here’s a look at the considerations that went into Israel’s actions in Iran.

Why did Netanyahu limit his goals this time?

The Israeli prime minister undoubtedly recognized that Iran was a different enemy, far more powerful and potentially more dangerous than the militant groups Hamas and even Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy in the region. Iran would be able to respond more violently than these groups, even though it has proven hostile to direct conflict.

This, in turn, could lead to far greater escalation and destabilization across the region, potentially involving more countries and drawing the US deeper into the conflict.

Israel has managed to destroy most of Gaza and is in the process of pulverizing parts of Lebanon, drawing international condemnation and outrage as well as political and diplomatic isolation, but without making effective efforts to contain it. The price it would pay for an all-out war with Iran would likely be higher.

Is the decision easy for him?

Probably not. U.S. officials put unusually strong pressure on Israel to scale back its targets, according to people familiar with the talks. Initially, nuclear sites as well as oil fields and other energy facilities were on the list. The Israelis agreed to demolish the nuclear facilities because of the risks involved and the difficulty of demolishing them. Finally, they also gave up on oil so as not to disrupt the global energy market.

After the Iranian bombing on October 1, Israel also apparently realized that it could not fend off a full-scale Iranian attack on its own and would need support from other countries. So it couldn’t risk upsetting the US in these talks.

Several carrots from the USA were offered

The Biden administration also persuaded Israel with several incentives. It imposed another set of sanctions against Iran, this time targeting the so-called ghost ships, unmarked oil tankers that Iran allegedly uses to export illegal petroleum products; an advanced ballistic missile air defense system known as THAAD was quickly brought to Israel; As a show of solidarity, they launched air strikes on Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Instead of nuclear and energy facilities, Israel says it has demolished many of Iran’s missile batteries and missile production factories. With so-called precision airstrikes, Israel also crippled much of Iran’s air defense network, the Netanyahu government said.

It is “as much as Israel could tolerate without a major split with the Biden administration,” said Bradley Bowman, a military expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington. The operation left Iran vulnerable, he said.

Is it over?

Absolutely not. Both Israel and Iran say they want to avoid a conflagration, but both continue to threaten each other.