Where the US elections are won and lost

There’s a lot at stake as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off in the race for the White House. This is where the race will be decided.

To secure the presidency, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump must win a majority of votes in the US electoral college.

So there are 538 electoral college votes Whoever reaches 270 wins.

(Or they’re tied at 269 each, but for our sakes, let’s not focus on that now…)

This map takes the shape of the United States and tweaks it a bit to show how many votes each state has in the Electoral College.

Each hexagon is a vote.

Most states tend to vote fairly predictably from election to election, providing a stable base of likely electoral votes for Harris and Trump.

Let’s take a look.

First of all, all parts of the country that are considered are listed here solid Trump notes, based on ratings from independent experts Cook Political Report.

And now let’s add in a lighter shade the states it’s assigned to probably for Trump.

It’s not enough to get him to the crucial number of 270, but he’s well on his way.

Now let’s do the same for Harris and add her solid States in dark blue.

Also in a lighter shade those where Harris is rated probably win.

So Harris hasn’t reached the magic 270 either – and the election is at stake.

Let’s hide the colored parts of the country to focus on the seven states where the candidates are essentially neck and neck.

It might help to imagine them like this…

Three in the northeast:

• Wisconsin
• Michigan
• Pennsylvania

Three in the so-called “Sun Belt,” which runs across the south:

• Arizona
• Georgia
• North Carolina

And one in the west:

Unless there are any big surprises, this is where the presidential race will be decided.

Harris’ most direct path to victory is through the northeastern states – Wisconsin, Michigan And Pennsylvania.

They are sometimes called “blue walls” because if Democrats can win them all, they are almost certain to win the election.

In 2020, Joe Biden won all three by narrow margins, and polls suggest it will be a very close race this year too.

Both parties have focused much of their campaigns on these states.

If Harris can hold the blue wall and avoid surprises elsewhere, she will clinch a victory with exactly 270 Electoral College votes…

… even if Trump claims every other contested state for himself.

But Trump also has a track record of toppling the blue wall.

He might have lost them to Biden in 2020, but he won all three and claimed victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

If Trump can win victories in the South and West, he only needs to win one northeastern state.

Even if you look at the smallest of the three blue wall states, Wisconsinwould be enough to return him to the White House.

And polls suggest he is well in the running in all three cases.

Michigan is home to one of the largest populations of Arab Americans in the country, who traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.

But their anger over Biden’s largely unwavering support for Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza has called that advantage into question and helped make it another potential tipping point for Trump.

What do the polls tell us about Trump and Harris’ chances?

Of course, these are just some of the scenarios for a Trump or Harris win.

With seven states at stake, there are more than a dozen possible final combinations that could swing the election one way or the other.

The New York Times and the political website 538 track polls across the country and average all the results to get a more accurate picture than any single poll can provide.

This is what the results would look like if these poll averages were absolutely accurate – down to the decimal place.

Trump would win by 287 to 251 Electoral College votes.

On the other hand, here’s what the outcome of the election would be if the New York Times and Siena’s final election campaign poll were accurate.

It paints a very different picture of the result – Trump and Harris divide the “Blue Wall” states and the southern “Sun Belt” states between them.

Crucially, the NYT/Siena poll gives Pennsylvania an “even” rating. The race is so close that it cannot divide the candidates.

But even if the issue wasn’t resolved, Harris would squeak across the finish line.

But here’s the thing.

All polls have a margin of error, and realistically, the overall race — and individual races in key states — are too close to call.

There is effectively a dead heat in the polls.

However, that doesn’t mean there will be a dead heat on the day.

If there is a polling error similar to that in 2020 – when Trump performed significantly better in the polls (but lost) – then he would win all the swing states for a comprehensive victory.

On the other hand, it would be a historic victory for Harris if there is a poll error similar to that seen in key Senate races in 2022 – when Democratic candidates performed better.

And let’s take this uncertainty one step further.

A pivotal poll released days before the election shows Harris winning Iowa – which is outside the group of key do-or-die states.

In fact, Cook Political Report rates it as “solid” for Trump.

As always, we must be careful not to read too much into any single survey.

But if it proves prescient (as it has before), it will change the map – and the election.

And Iowa is just one possible example.

The race is so close that only a fool would rule out the possibility of a surprise result from outside the key swing states.

Is a draw possible?

There are a total of 538 electoral votes up for election, meaning it is possible that both candidates will end up with equal representation.

Here’s one way a tie could end.

If there is a tie, it is up to the House of Representatives to decide who wins the presidency.

Trump is a clear favorite in this scenario since each state delegation gets one vote and Republicans are in control at the moment.

There has only been one tie in U.S. history, between Thomas Jefferson and John Adams in 1800. (Jefferson famously became president.)

In 2024, the first states will be called for Harris and Trump on Wednesday morning.

If the election is as close as predicted, it could take days to decide the winner.

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