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Who is leading the fight – Trump or Harris?

Jasper
Who is leading the fight – Trump or Harris?

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris has been effectively neck-and-neck since Election Day. Pre-election polls in all seven swing states show single-digit margins – and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually tied.

Important facts

Nevada: This is also a misconception – Trump is up 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading 49-46% and YouGov Harris leading 48-47% Plus has while Emerson has a draw at 48%.

Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump lead – he’s ahead by 0.7 percentage points on the FiveThirtyEight average and is 50-49% in the Emerson poll, 50-48% in the Morning Consult poll, and 50-48% in the YouGov poll -Poll ahead 48-46% poll, but the Times/Siena poll has Harris ahead 48-47%.

north Carolina: Another narrow Trump advantage – he leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s data and is ahead 49-48% according to Emerson, 49-47% according to Morning Consult and 48-47% according to YouGov, although Harris is ahead with 48%. -46% in the Times/Siena poll.

Michigan: There’s a margin of error for Harris – she leads by one point in the FiveThirtyEight data, 50-48% in the Emerson poll, 49-48% in the Morning Consult poll and 47-45% according to YouGov, but they’re lying in the New York Times/Siena poll at 47%.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage – she’s up 1.1 points on FiveThirtyEight, leading Trump 48-45% according to YouGov and 49-47% according to Times/Siena, but she’s tied for 49th in Emerson’s poll %. and Morning Consult has a lead of about one point over Trump.

Arizona: It’s the largest lead of any swing state and still extremely close – Trump is up 2.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and leads 49%-45% according to the Times/Siena, 50%-48 according to Emerson % and according to Times/Siena at 48%-47%. However, Morning Consult found a tie at 48%, according to YouGov.

When do polls close in swing states?

The first swing state to complete voting will be Georgia at 7:00 p.m. EST, followed by North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. and Pennsylvania and much of Michigan at 8:00 p.m. Voting ends at 9 p.m. EST in Wisconsin, the rest of Michigan and Arizona, while Nevada closes swing states at 10 p.m. However, counting ballots and releasing results could take a while – Georgia and North Carolina should begin releasing counts quickly, while Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania may take longer. Here you will find an hour-by-hour introduction.

Big number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’ lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average.

Who is the favorite to win the election?

Basically it’s a mistake. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance of winning and Trump a 49% chance, while statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ chances of winning at 50% and Trump’s at 49.6%. If the above polling averages are exactly right in all seven swing states, Harris will clinch a narrow electoral victory – but the polls could be slightly off, and even a small error in one direction or the other could result in a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa a swing state?

Probably not — but a new poll on Saturday has some people raising eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, a shocking result given Selzer’s stellar reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the poll’s results – which suggested women, independents and older voters voted significantly against Trump – will be replicated in other swing states such as neighboring Wisconsin.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 due to an intraparty revolt following his debate performance – dramatically changing the Democrats’ fortunes. Before the postponement, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, although Biden won six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Further reading

Trump vs. Harris polls 2024: Harris remains ahead in four new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads by less than one point in poll averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Almost tied in new 7th swing state (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Most polls show Trump ahead in crucial swing state (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has narrow lead – but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Polls Show Trump Has Slight Advantage (Forbes)

Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump has advantage in latest swing state poll (Forbes)

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