Who said the choice was right and who got it wrong?

There have been numerous predictions and predictions leading up to the 2024 election, and inevitably not everyone was right about who the next president would be.

Key forecasting models have had drastic swings during the election cycle due to unexpected events, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s exit from the race and President Joe Biden’s replacement by Vice President Kamala Harris.

President-elect Donald Trump secured victory after winning the swing states North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and he could gain even more as Michigan, Nevada and Arizona have not yet fully counted their votes.

Below we analyze some of the predictions made in the run-up to Tuesday’s election. Newsweek has asked the pollsters listed for comment.

Nate Silver

As one of the most recognizable names in polls, Nate Silver’s prediction carried significant weight throughout the election. His role model, the Silver Bulletin, predicted Tuesday that Harris had a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to 49.6 percent for Trump.

In the final days of the election, Silver said that the race was a “pure toss” and that “50-50 was the only reliable forecast.” However, a few days before Election Day, he also said his gut feeling told him Trump would win.

Silver also said the chance of a “clean victory” on election night was high, with one candidate winning every swing state.

Allan Lichtman

“Polling Nostradamus” Allan Lichtman is the creator of the “Thirteen Keys to the White House,” a set of historical fundamentals that can be either true or false and determine whether the incumbent party retains control of the presidency.

Unlike other forecasting models, Lichtman’s keys provide an absolute answer rather than a percentage. In September, Lichtman said his model predicted Harris would win the election.

Lichtman said the reasons for the Democrat’s favorability include the lack of a strong third-party candidate and the good economic performance.

Ann Selzer

Ann Selzer, another big name in the polling industry, released a shock poll the weekend before Election Day that showed Harris with a three-point lead in Iowa, even though previous polls had shown Trump with a significant lead there and the state the Republican supported in the last two elections.

The survey conducted by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom found that 47 percent of Iowa voters supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump.

Despite its historical reputation for accuracy, Selzer’s poll did not reflect the final result in Iowa. Trump took the state by a comfortable 14-point margin, increasing his lead compared to 2020 when he won the state by 9 points.

Thirty-five

Nate Silver’s previous election prediction model 538 is the most well-known poll aggregation site in US politics and correctly predicted Biden’s victory in 2020.

On the eve of the 2024 election, ABC News’ model gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump had a 49 percent chance.

Towards the end of last month, Trump reached his highest odds in the model, peaking on October 26 with a 55 percent probability of victory.

The Economist

The Economistusing similar techniques to 538, also showed a close race on the final day of the election cycle, giving Harris a 56 percent chance of winning while Trump had a 43 percent chance. The chance of a draw was 1 percent.

Which pollsters were the most accurate?

Atlas Intel polls in the final week of the campaign showed Trump winning Pennsylvania by a 1-point margin — which, at the time of writing, is in line with what the former president is expected to win, according to the Associated Press.

Atlas also correctly estimated Trump’s margins in Ohio and North Carolina.

According to Politico, the polling institute JL Partners was also correct with its numbers. On November 5, his model gave former President Donald Trump a 54 percent chance of victory. Survey published at the end of October in connection with the Daily Mail showed Trump had a 3-point lead over Harris.

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