Who will win the election in Arizona? Kari Lake vs Ruben Gallego updates

Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego are vying for a Senate seat in Arizona and both hope to represent the state in Congress.

Lake, a staunch Trump ally who became a household name after the 2022 election, has brought national attention to her race as both campaigns mobilized resources and sought to motivate voters. The Senate seat was left open after Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided not to run for re-election and has the potential to shift control of the Senate.

According to NBC News projections, Gallego was in the lead with 52.5 percent of the vote. At this point, 51 percent of the votes had been counted.

Lake, a former television news anchor, built her campaign on issues that resonate with the Republican base. Their political messages focus on border security, election integrity and limiting government overreach.

Since entering politics, Lake has been a controversial figure, particularly because of her repeated claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential campaign, which have endeared her to Trump loyalists but angered more moderate and independent voters. Lake also questioned her own gubernatorial election, claiming she was the rightful winner in 2022.

Despite her initial skepticism about early voting – a hallmark of her criticism of election procedures – Lake changed her mind and actively encouraged Republicans to vote early in Tuesday’s election. Lake’s shift came as Trump and other Republicans also shifted their messaging after the 2020 election, when early voting turned the tide for President Joe Biden. As part of that effort, she launched an “Early Voting Bus Tour,” emphasizing that early voting is critical to securing Republican victories.

“We need to gather our votes, just like Democrats do,” she said during a campaign event New York Post.

Gallego, a five-term congressman and Marine Corps veteran, has championed policies focused on health care access, immigration reform and veterans’ affairs. Representing Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, which covers much of central Phoenix, Gallego has made a name for himself as a pragmatic progressive willing to reach across the aisle on specific issues. His campaign highlights his experience in Congress and his service in the Iraq War and appeals to Arizona’s significant population of veterans and working-class voters. Gallego was also critical of Kari Lake’s election denial rhetoric, arguing that such claims threaten democratic institutions.

Polls leading up to the election showed that either candidate could win the race. An Emerson College poll conducted between October 30 and November 2 showed Gallego leading Lake by 5 points. An Insider Advantage poll conducted November 1-2 showed a closer contest, with Gallego leading Lake by just 2 points.

The Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, conducted a poll between November 1 and November 3 and concluded that the race was tied between the two candidates.

The candidates clashed in their only debate on Oct. 9, where border security, immigration and economic policy took center stage. Lake accused Gallego of supporting “open borders” and argued that his policies would worsen the immigration crisis. Gallego countered that Lake’s stance on immigration was too simplistic and ignored the complexities of border management. He also criticized her previous allegations of voter fraud, claiming that such rhetoric undermines trust in democratic processes.

The importance of this Senate race goes beyond Arizona. Both parties see this as a key battleground that could determine control of the Senate, which is currently evenly divided. Arizona’s growing population, increasingly diverse demographics, and status as a swing state have made Arizona a focus of national political strategy.

Lake’s campaign relied heavily on conservative enthusiasm, hoping that Arizona’s right-leaning rural areas would emerge forcefully in power. Lake also bet that problems at the border would prompt voters to vote for her.

A New York Times/A Siena College poll found that the economy was the most important issue for Arizona voters, followed closely by immigration.

At the same time, Gallego built on the strong support of urban and suburban voters, particularly the state’s growing Latino population. He has also made a concerted effort to reach independent and moderate voters disillusioned with extremism on both sides. This strategy is critical because Arizona’s electorate is almost evenly split between Democrats, Republicans and Independents.