Why this rookie RB is an X-factor in the NFL’s first week

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When the Buffalo Bills face the Arizona Cardinals in their season opener at Orchard Park this Sunday, new full-time offensive coordinator Joe Brady will finally unveil his version of the Bills’ offense. When he temporarily filled in for Ken Dorsey in 2023, Brady was locked into the offensive structure Dorsey had put in place. That’s not meant to be a knock against Dorsey – that would be true for any coordinator change during the season. In 2024, however, Brady has implemented his offensive design with players he helped sign.

Many in the Bills Mafia expect Brady to use James Cook as a lead back, similar to what he did in 2023. Fantasy owners should beware, however, as head coach Sean McDermott has typically used a split backfield. The split between RB1 and RB2 carries during McDermott’s tenure is roughly 2:1 with outliers in 2019 (1:1) and 2023 (2.5:1). The ratio starting in 2023 could be due to how Brady plans to use the former Georgia Bulldog, or it could be due to injuries to players like Damien Harris, proven performance decline (Latavius ​​Murray), or general ineffectiveness (Leonard Fournette).

Enter Ray Davis. Davis was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. He stands 5’10” and weighs 215 pounds. He averaged 5.7 YPC against Kentucky’s SEC schedule in 2023.

From Weeks 1-6, when Damien Harris was healthy, he and Murray had twice as many runs inside the five-yard line as the rest of the team (10-5), and Allen had just three. After Harris’ injury and Murray’s drop-off, Allen had 12 of the team’s 20 runs inside the five from Weeks 7-18. Allen is a notable weapon, but the Bills want to protect him and have been looking for an effective alternative for goal-line runs for several years. With that in mind, consider the following:

Davis was 10th in the FBS in EPA/Att inside the five-yard line for RBs with 10 or more attempts, including eight TDs, in 2023.

Related: Cardinals vs. Bills: 4 key players to watch in Week 1 of the NFL

Davis’ footwork and vision have proven themselves in the preseason. Despite only having 13 carries, Davis led the Bills in Yards After Contact/Att (3.46) and had the team’s longest preseason run (19 yards). Some mid- to late-round rookies show early that they aren’t ready for the NFL, but Davis’ preseason tape shows he isn’t overwhelmed by the increase in competition.

Davis’ first NFL opponent is the Arizona Cardinals, who, to put it politely, were not good at defending the run in 2023. Arizona’s run defense stats and rankings from last year:

The Cardinals aggressively addressed the issues in their front seven this offseason, signing defensive linemen LJ Collier, Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols, Khyiris Tonga, TJ Carter and Myles Murphy and linebackers Krys Barnes, Mack Wilson, Markus Bailey, Xavier Thomas, Chris Garrett and Marquis Haynes, most of whom were released in the waivers.

They also signed Zaven Collins to a two-year contract extension, but the former 16th overall pick accepted a deal worth just $7 million AAV, which is disappointing for the fringe market.

They have signed Darius Robinson, a promising candidate for the defensive line, but unfortunately he is on the injured list.

The bottom line is that these are Arizona’s top seven players before Week 1.

Kyzir White has shown he can play at a respectable level, but you’d be forgiven if none of these names ring a bell.

Despite the Bills’ maneuvering along the offensive line, they should be able to put consistent pressure on the Cardinals’ line.

Schedule and prediction

Look for an offensive game plan where the Bills have a run/pass ratio of about 55:45, with Cook getting 20-25 attempts and Ray Davis having 10-15 attempts, including some near the goal line.

Betting market line: O 16.5 ru Yards -120*

X-Factor Projection Line: 12 rushing attempts, 47 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 Rec, 12 Receiving Yards

*Betting odds are for comparison purposes only.

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