Will California meet its greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030?

California should almost triple the rate According to a report by the nonprofit environmental organization Next 10 and the research firm Beacon Economics, the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent compared to 1990 levels is to be achieved by 2030.

By comparison, emissions would have to fall by 4.4 percent per year, which would be no small feat – greenhouse gases have fallen by an average of 0.4 percent per year since 1990, according to the study, which is based on data from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) 2023 GHG Inventory (based on figures through 2021).

At current rates of development, the Gold Coast state will not reach its 2030 target until 2047, the authors predict.

“While California is a leader on climate action, there are significant obstacles that prevent us from accelerating our decarbonization efforts in an equitable way that benefits all Californians. These obstacles are not insurmountable, but we must act urgently,” said F. Noel Perry, co-founder of Next 10.

The report finds that total greenhouse gas emissions, which had been declining for years, began to rise again between 2020 and 2021, rising by 3.4 percent in 2021. This sharp increase follows an 8.8 percent drop in emissions in 2020, which the authors attribute largely to lockdowns during the peak of Covid-19.

Here are some key findings that show both progress and setbacks:

CARB disputes the claim that the state is not on track to meet its fast-approaching goal.

“We are confident that California will meet its climate goals on time. We are closely monitoring progress and are making regulatory adjustments to ensure success,” said David Clegern, spokesman for the California Air Resources Board.

Electricity generation has been the biggest obstacle to progress in the sector, at least in recent years. Emissions from electricity generation have fallen 40.5 percent since 2000, but only 12 percent since 2016. The authors attribute the downward trend largely to increased natural gas use to maintain power supply during droughts. Natural gas power plants are the largest source of greenhouse gases among electricity generators in the state (27.86 million tons in 2000 and 20.22 million tons in 2021).

In the renewable energy sector, production has slowed significantly since 2018, calling into question the likelihood of meeting the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) goal of 50 percent renewable energy by 2026. While California still has a significant lead nationally (35.8% in California versus 15.3% in the rest of the U.S.), growth has slowed relative to national activity.

“We need to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy generation and then accelerate the time it takes for those resources to connect to the grid. For example, while renewable energy will grow by 2.2 percent and make up 35.8 percent of California’s total electricity mix in 2022, renewable energy generation must increase by 8.7 percent each year from 2022 to 2026 to meet our 2026 RPS goal,” Perry says.

Nevertheless, the state has brought a significant amount of battery storage into operation and generated only minimal amounts of new natural gas generation.

Overall, good progress has been made in decarbonising transport, but a closer look reveals even more. Data from the past few decades shows that emissions have fallen significantly over a long period of time – from 175.7 million tonnes of CO2e in 2000 to 145.6 million tonnes in 2021. But recently the numbers have been rising, with emissions driven by people returning to work since COVID-19 (a 7.4% increase for passenger cars; however, heavy-duty vehicle emissions fell for the third year in a row).

According to CARB, California’s cement plants emit enormous amounts of CO2 – about 7.5 tons per year between 2008 and 2019. The agency says it is focused on decarbonizing this sector and is exploring options such as lower-carbon fuels, increased use of clean electricity, and carbon capture, utilization and storage.

CARB’s climate programs are guided by the Climate Change Scoping Plan, which is updated about every five years. The latest edition is designed to help state programs achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Many of the points raised by Next 10 and Beacon were already anticipated in it, Clegern said.

He points out some changes in the CARB programs since 2022 (the year after the last emissions reported by Next 10 and Beacon):

The Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, which calls for the elimination of light fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035, is currently being amended to make the targets more stringent, says Clegern.

In addition, the Advanced Clean Fleets regulation has been updated, which calls for the full electrification of medium and heavy vehicle fleets by 2040.

Work is also underway to amend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which would impose stricter regulations on transportation fuels sold in the state.

Clegern also points to “ongoing discussions and actions” with the California Energy Commission to advance the expansion of solar, wind and geothermal energy.

He advocates growth in both renewable energy and clean transportation.

“In 2021, 47.5 percent of total electricity generation came from solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power. And our clean car rules and incentives are responsible for the sale of nearly two million plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles and hydrogen-powered light commercial vehicles,” he says.

The Next 10 and Beacon report was released in March 2024, without comprehensive, definitive data on progress being available afterward. preliminary estimates of 2022, emissions were published as part of the reporting obligation.

Perry echoes Next 10 and Beacon’s assessment, saying, “The bottom line is that California must begin reducing emissions as soon as possible in all major sectors of our economy – including transportation, agriculture, housing, commercial, industrial, aviation and power generation. Otherwise, we will not be able to meet our 2030 carbon targets on time.”