Will there be a lot of snow in central Pennsylvania? This is what meteorologists say about the coming winter

Winter is slowly approaching.

As Accuweather points out, meteorological winter begins on December 1st, less than two months away. And according to the latest winter weather forecast, the upcoming season will be relatively mild in central Pennsylvania, but that doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be any snow.

“As people prepare their skis and snowblowers with snow on their minds, AccuWeather forecasters predict the season will be mild for most of the United States, similar to last winter, which was the warmest on record,” says the forecast. “However, that is only part of the story, as waves of freezing air periodically send freezing air across the country and the likelihood of snow increases.”

AccuWeather notes three major factors in the 2024-25 winter weather forecast, including La Nina, the polar vortex and water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and northern Pacific.

The La Nina phenomenon occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the Eastern Pacific are lower than usual for an extended period of time. If the temperature stays this way, it can affect the trajectory of snowstorms and weather patterns.

According to Paul Pastelok, senior meteorologist and long-range expert at AccuWeather, the phenomenon will not be a major problem this winter but could cause some uncertainty in future forecasts.

“La Niña will be weak for most of the winter,” Pastelok said in the release. “A weaker La Niña may allow other signals to drive the pattern, leading to more variability in the winter.”

On the other hand, water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico could pose a greater threat. AccuWeather notes that “Gulf water temperatures are expected to be higher than historical averages, which may translate into mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.”

The polar vortex is likely to hit most of the eastern United States in February, bringing blasts of cold air. However, Pastelok points out that the explosions are not a clear certainty.

The first signs of snow are also expected in December, as AccuWeather predicts that the first month of winter will bring “short bursts of cold air that will trigger lake snow,” the forecast says.

Lake effect snow is expected to hit the East Coast and other areas of the country in December. This phenomenon is the result of the movement of cold air masses over warm water, and some East Coast cities could see more snow due to the lake effect, according to AccuWeather.

“New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are a sampling of the cities expected to see more snow than last winter, due in part to more snow opportunities in February,” the forecast said. “Not only may places like Chicago and Buffalo have more snow than last winter, but there is also the possibility that snow totals for the season this winter will be above historical averages.”

South-central Pennsylvania, including places like Harrisburg and York, may not see as much snow as its counterparts. Pastelok said in a phone call that it could be harder for the region to see snow in December.

“It’s more likely that we might see an event in late November into December that could bring snow,” he said. “It snows more easily in Erie because of the lakes and in Pittsburgh because of the mountains. In December, it’s harder to see snow in places like Harrisburg.”

Pastelok also noted that there is a higher chance of snow in Harrisburg in January.

“As low pressure systems cut through the Ohio Valley to the east, we could see some snow in Harrisburg,” he said. “Don’t give up, but it’s hard because we’re fighting against the warm air. January remains mild. Timing wise, it’s going to be a battle.”

While much of the country will experience typical early winter weather, people in the Gulf Coast states and the Plains can expect a warm winter or a longer fall.

Palestok explained that certain areas will be slightly warmer than average this winter.

“From December through February, the warmest areas of the country compared to average will be from the south-central Southern Plains states through the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys,” he said.

For more information on upcoming weather in Pennsylvania, click here.