Wood Mackenzie: Replacing Norwegian oil and gas supplies to Europe with imports would increase emissions between 2024 and 2040

Replacing oil and gas production from future Norwegian exploration projects with equivalent imports from other parts of the world would result in an increase in emissions of 230 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂(e) between 2024 and 2040, according to a report published by Wood Mackenzie.

The Norway Emissions Assessment report was prepared for Norwegian oil and gas producer Aker BP, which commissioned Wood Mackenzie to conduct an independent analysis of the impact of reducing oil and gas production in Norway. This followed recent court rulings in Norway that invalidated permits for three offshore oil and gas projects because they did not take into account the impact of future use of the hydrocarbons produced on the global climate.

The report found that Norway is Europe’s largest hydrocarbon producer, with a total production of 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). More than 90% of its exports go to the European market. Despite this, Europe is a net importer of oil and gas, with regional production meeting only 25% and 45% of demand, respectively.

“Demand for oil and gas is declining in Europe, but they are forecast to account for over 50% of the primary energy mix in 2040 and will continue to play a critical role during the energy transition,” said the report’s lead author, Malcolm Forbes-Cable, Vice President of Consulting at Wood Mackenzie. “This means that Norway’s oil and gas, which has the world’s lowest average carbon dioxide emission intensity, also plays a critical role.”

Forbes-Cable adds that the low carbon intensity of Norwegian oil and gas production is due to the country’s high operational standards, which include widespread electrification of operations through hydropower and strict methane management. Proximity to the European market also makes a difference, as other suppliers have to take into account the emissions generated by longer transport distances.

The report also states that the findings it provided have resulted in oil imported into Europe having a carbon intensity three times higher than its Norwegian counterpart, while gas has a carbon intensity six times higher.

Read the article online at: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/petrochemicals/09082024/wood-mackenzie-replacing-norways-oil-and-gas-supplies-to-europe-with-imports-would-increase-emissions-between-2024–2040/